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2773 items in total found

Working Papers | 1993

Arima Model for and Forecasts on Tea Production in India

Gupta G S

The paper explains the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (Box-Jenkins) model in detail, develops an ARIMA model for tea production in India using monthly data for the period Jan. 1979 through July 1991, and applies the so developed model to forecast tea production during the future 12 months. On verification through several statistical techniques including the accuracy of sample period forecasts, the model is found to be quite strong. The post sample period forecasts are consistent with the seasonal pattern of the data in past 12 years and this enhances the model's credibility. As per the results, tea production in India during the post-sample one year is expected to be fluctuating between a low of 14,300 tonnes during Feb.-March 1992 to 90,600 tonnes in July 1992; the actual data for these periods are not yet available in published form.

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Working Papers | 1993

Indian Manufacturing Industry: The Growth Episode of the Eighties

Sengupta D N

Growth of Indian manufacturing in the 80s was market-driven: policy changes enabled an expansion in output in response to growth in demand. Output growth led to productivity increase which came from material and labor savings, in that order of importance. Ten percent of the productivity increase was retained as increased profits and the rest reflected in falling prices (in relation to overall prices). This further stimulated demand. There were some structural changes, like growth of the factory sector at the expense of the cottage sector and an increase in the industrial sector's ability to sustain its own growth. Industrial growth in itself did not worsen the b.o.p. situation. In fact, the balance of commodity trade improved, because output growth led to export growth which outpaced import growth. However, the relatively slow growth in imports was the result of Bombay High and may not be sustainable. Future strategy for industrial development should pursue growth and not multiple objectives. Other desirable outcomes would follow. Growth is most likely to be achieved by explicating the existing demand for consumer goods. This will pull up the demand for intermediate and capital goods also. Both industry and government should depend on volume growth for profits and revenues and keep prices and indirect taxes low. This is possible with continuous increases in productivity. Policies that expand markets, increase competition, promote technical progress, encourage human resources development and stimulate industrial investment will also increase productivity. A cautious view on imports seems advisable.

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Working Papers | 1993

A Study of Organizational Climate in Relation to Organizational Role Stress (ORS) and Learned Helplessness (LH)

Pestonjee D M and Desai Tripati Pande

The purpose of the study is to investigate the relationship between the factors of learned helplessness (LH) and organizational role stress (ORS) to the motivational climate of the organization. The sample comprised of two hundred and twenty respondents belonging to the middle management of five units of the engineering industry located in western India. Motivational Climate of the organization is analyzed by using MAO-C questionnaire (Pareek 1981) comprising of 60 statements employing twelve dimensions and six motives of the organization. Organizational Role Stress scale (Pareek 1981) is used to measure the stress the individual feels in the organization. It is a five point scale wherein 10 dimensions of stress are measured. Learned Helplessness scale (Pestonjee and Reddy, 1988) consisting of 24 items with a six-point rating format, is used to measure learned helplessness. Means and S.D.'s intercorrelations and regressions are used to interpret the data. From the results, we observe that Role Erosion was the highest contributor of stress in this group. The climate of the organization that is related to the trust among various members and groups seems to significantly affect the learned helplessness and stress of the executives. 'Management of rewards' was the other dimension of organizational climate which had a significant bearing on the dependent variables of learned helplessness (LH) and organizational role stress (ORS).

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Working Papers | 1993

Implications of NAFTA on Indo-Canadian Trade

Ravindra H. Dholakia and Kumar N Ganesh

The changes in the global trading scenario, particularly the emergence of regional trading blocs have far reaching effects on world trade. The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) comprising of Canada, Mexico and the USA s the latest one in this regard. It is feared that when NAFTA is in place it can adversely affect India's exports to the NAFTA countries. In this paper we examine the implications of NAFTA on the Indo-Canadian trade. We also critically evaluate the option of joining NAFTA for India.

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Working Papers | 1993

Implications of the Sectoral Targets of India Eigth Five year Plan

Ravindra H. Dholakia

The paper examines critically the implications of the sectoral targets of income and employment growth coupled with the investment allocations as envisaged in India's Eighth Five Year Plan. The implications are worked out on the labor income per unit of investment, required economic rate of return on project investments and the rate of total factor productivity growth by sectors. As was the case with the Seventh Five Year Plan, the Eighth Plan also appears to lack consistency.

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Working Papers | 1993

Indian Economic Forecast March 1993

Rastogi A B

Although not spelt out by the Finance Minister as preparing ground for the EFF/ESAF loan from the IMF, it is a path-breaking budget with a strong emphasis on restructuring the economy and the augmenting supply side of the economy. The medium-term funding facility from the IMF/WB with concessional loan would act as insurance and paper over the ripples generated in the goods market and financial assets market due to restructuring of the economy. To ameliorate short term consequences on labor, the labor market reforms are being handled in a politically deft manner. The economic strategy in the medium term is quite clear, go for growth and supply side incentives and push for structural reform. Monetary policy of the government is quite tight and as inflation falls rapidly the government should bring down interest rates quickly to maintain the momentum of private sector investment to enhance productive capacity of the economy. The success of the reform programmes hinges on sustained growth of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors which is inexorable linked to productive investment in these sectors.

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Working Papers | 1993

Trappings of Expertise and the Pursuit of Failure

Ramanarayan S

In the past, people learnt about dealing with complex situations through life experiences. With the availability of computer simulations, it seems feasible to supplement 'life' as a teacher to foster learning about the challenges of complex, dynamic, and uncertain realities. This paper describes a computer simulation of a business organization used with 20 groups of participants. Each group had three members and was expected to manage 24 months of the organization in 3 hours of simulation time. The simulation threw up some interesting behavioral patterns, and provided some insights into the typical errors in the planning and decision making behaviors of specialists. For example, it was found that despite a flood of analysts, several specialists seemed hesitant to apply yardsticks, make choices, and take stands. So there was a strong tendency to avoid or postpone action taking. It was also found that each group developed a routine for data collection. Using the metaphor of 'control panel', the paper examines how routinization channelizes the attention of the group in certain directions and away from certain areas. Several implicit assumptions were identified which blocked the learning of groups from experience. The paper discusses the behavioral patterns reflective of the assumptions. For example, there was a strong tendency to shrink when things did not go as planned. They key concern was found to be with minimizing mistakes. The concluding section discusses some of the self-reflective comments of the participants and the role of organizational simulation exercises for management training. An attempt has been made to explore the notion of strategic orientation as heightened awareness of the choice points that one encounters. A strategic mind develops better understanding of the functioning of complex systems, and retains its flexibility with respect to the choice points rather than getting entrenched in set behavioral patterns.

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Working Papers | 1993

Dividend Decision: A Study of Managers Perceptions

Bhat Ramesh and Pandey I M

In finance literature several theoretical constructs have been proposed to explain the dividend policy of a company. Several empirical studies have been conducted to test these theories. Very few attempts have been made to understand the perceptions and attitudes of managers about the factors they think are important in determining dividend policy. It is with this objective that the present study purports to present the survey results. The study attempts to answer the following questions: 1. What factors do managers consider important in deciding their companies' dividend policy? 2. Do managers perceive a relationship between their companies' dividend policy and the value of the share? 3. Do managers consider last year's dividend policy relevant in deciding the current dividend policy? 4. Do managers think tax status of their shareholders as an important determinant of dividend policy? 5. Do managers use dividend policy as a signal for indicating the company's future prospects to shareholders? 6. Do managers consider dividend payment merely as a residue? This study used questionnaire to seek answers to above questions. The questionnaire was divided into two parts. Part I focused on determinants which managers consider important (on a seven point scale) in deciding their dividend policy. Part II of the questionnaire was devoted to managers' views (strong disagreement to strong agreement scale) on different issues which have implications for dividend policy. The questionnaire was sent to the Economic Times 250 top companies and was addressed to finance directors of these companies. This study reveals a number of interesting conclusions. First, it is shown that payment of dividend depends on current and expected earnings as well as the pattern of past dividends. This vindicates Lintner's findings in U.S.A. about forty years ago. Similar results are reported by Baker et. al. for U.S.A. companies in 1985. It is also pertinent to note that managers of companies in India would like their companies to continuously maintain payment of dividend. They do not consider liquidity to be a significant consideration in dividend policy. Second, managers consider that there s a positive relationship between payment of dividends and share price. However, it is surprising to find that they do not consider the purpose of dividend policy as maintaining or increasing share price. They strongly believe that companies should strive to maintain an uninterrupted record of dividend payments, and they should avoid making changes in dividend policy that might have to be reversed. Third, respondents in our survey do not seem to fully understand the clientele hypothesis. They, of course, do not deny the existence of high-payout clientele. Managers do consider dividend policy as a signaling device. Fourth, managers seem to prefer payment of dividend even if companies have profitable investment opportunities. Thus, they do not provide any support to dividend residual hypothesis. This is in tone with their perception that the dividend must be paid consistently and continuously.

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Working Papers | 1993

Expected Inflation and Forecast of Growth Rate in India

Ravindra H. Dholakia

Under rapidly changing economic environment in India, economic decision makers at various levels are likely to consider reliable short term forecast of the growth rate of the economy as an important input. It is argued that a simple model with a few variables is likely to be more relevant and reliable for the purpose than elaborate complicated models with hundreds of equations and variables. Expected inflation rate and internal supply-shock are hypothesized to be crucial variables. Numerous alternative methods are tried to measure the expected inflation in India and final choice is made on the bases of certain criteria discussed in the paper. The growth forecasting performance of the model suggested in the paper is compared to the official estimates for the last two years The exploratory exercise carried out in the paper shows promise and potential.

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Working Papers | 1993

Energy-Environment Dynamics in a Medium Sized Town

P. R. Shukla, Prem Pangotra, and Khandelwal Bharat

Conservation of energy and protection of the environmental resources are two of the biggest challenges in planning for a higher quality of life in our communities and sustainable economic development for the society at large. This study models the pattern of energy consumption in all sectors of the community in a medium-sized town in north India. The environmental impacts of energy consumption in human activities-domestic, commercial and industrial-have been assessed. Public systems for providing municipal services have been evaluated both in terms of energy requirements and their effectiveness in providing desired levels of service. Policy options for strategic interventions in each major sector have been identified and the capacity of the local government to mobilize resources for implementing some of the recommended strategies has been assessed. Overall the study evolves a general methodology for addressing issues at the energy-environment interface in other similar communities.

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