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2774 items in total found

Working Papers | 1994

Stock Price Behavior in Malaysia

Kok C H and Gupta G S

The paper examines the validity of the three theories of stock price behaviour in Malaysia: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)/Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH), Technical Analysis and the Fundamental Theory. The sample consists of the Malaysian stock market indices, Singapore stock market price index, USA Dow Jones Industrial Average, Japan Nikkei index and stock prices of 30 Malaysia companies across various sectors, annual data of 1982 through 1993, and weekly data of period 1977 through April 1994. The correlation analysis, time series analysis and multiple regression techniques have been employed to analyse the data. The findings support the usefulness of the technical analysis and fundamental approach to stock pricing and reject the efficient market hypothesis for Malaysia.

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Working Papers | 1994

Dividend Behavior in Malaysia

Sing L K and Gupta G S

The paper estimates the dividend behaviour model for Malaysia using the annual time series data for the period 1983 to 1992, and the cross-section data for the 23 selected firms representing various sectors of the economy. The results have good fits, and they indicate that the current earnings and previous year's dividend are the only two universal and significant explanatory variables for dividend, and thus they support the Lintner's model. Depreciation and the two period change in sales have assumed the correctly singed and significant coefficients only in a few cases. The average value of the earnings' multiplier is found to be 0.31 and that of the lagged dividend 0.38, the latter implying an adjustment coefficient of 0.62.

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Working Papers | 1994

Return, Risk and Optimum Portfolio of stocks in

Yong Liew Bee and Gupta G S

The paper computes the return and risk (systematic and unsystematic) from investments in stocks, determines the optimum portfolio of stocks, and develops a fundamental model for beta of stocks, using data of the Malaysian economy. The sample consists of 27 companies (three from each of the nine sectors) and 10 years annual data (1984 to1993). The findings suggest that skilled investors have a lot of scope to out perform the market. In particular, out of 27 companies studies, stocks of two companies, viz. Rothmans and Pernas International Hotel and Property, have yielded higher return with lower risk than the market index, and the optimum portfolio delineated gives a return of 32.2% with a beta of 0.62, which stand at more than twice and about two-thirds of those on the market index, respectively. The results of the fundamental model for beta are not so good but they indicate that the leverage and earnings' variability are the only two determinants of beta out of the six determinants hypothesized in the paper.

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Working Papers | 1994

Philippines Telecommunications Sector: An Assessment of Policy Changes

Rekha Jain

The Philippines government has undertaken a major reform programme since the early nineties to accelerate the growth in the economy. It is also attempting to upgrade the telecom services and infrastructure. The government views the private sector as a major source of investment. In Philippines, unlike many other countries, the private sector was the dominant provider of telecom services until the early nineties. The service levels, however, continue to be poor largely because of the monopoly of a singly provider and weak regulation. Subsequently, the government introduced a number of reform measures such as greater involvement of the private sector in all segments of telecom service including rural telecommunications and mandatory interconnections amongst service providers. It has also attempted to strengthen the regulatory framework. This paper review the status of the Philippine telecom sector and the reform programs introduced by the government. It highlights the issues in the management of the reform program and compares it with initiatives in other developing countries.

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Working Papers | 1994

Review of Malaysian Telecom Sector: Assessment of Policy Changes

Rekha Jain

The Malaysian economy has been growing rapidly, with concomitant demand for telecom services. With a view to reducing the role of the government in economy and introducing efficiency, the government planned to corporatize public sector organizations as a first step forward privatization. The telecommunication sector was chosen as one of the initial government departments to be corporatized and is experience was going to be used as a basis for deregulation and privatization in other state controlled sectors. In 1987, legislation was enacted to bring in major reforms in the telecom sector. Malaysia was the first ASEAN country to introduce such reforms. Due to the pervasive effect of telecom in the economy, management of this initiative was of interest in various quarters. This paper documents the state of Malaysian telecom sector and highlights the policy changes that have been initiated since 1987. These changes range from deregulation to privatization of the state owned telecom monopoly. Experience of managing this change and comparing it with similar initiatives in other developing countries provides important guidelines to decision makers on management of reform process. The paper emphasizes that effective separation of policy, regulation and operations, presence of effective regulatory body and fair regulatory guidelines, access to capital and trained human resources is crucial to the success of the reform program. In comparision to many other developing countries (e.g. India, Thailand, Philippines etc.), Malaysia has been able to successfully implement a reform program on these dimensions.

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Working Papers | 1994

Export and Liberalization: A Simple Industrial Organization Approach

Patibandla Murali

This paper presents a simple theory towards putting forward two hypotheses that can be empirically verified with regard to the export behaviour of oligopoly firms in the post-liberalization period in selective Indian industries. These hypotheses are-(1) In the presence of import protection, large oligopoly firms export to protect high domestic market price and (2) within the size group of large scale firms, larger firms will have higher export orientation.

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Working Papers | 1994

Appropriate Measure of Real Value Added and Total Factor Productivity Growth in Indian Manufacturing

Dholakia Bakul H and Ravindra H. Dholakia

It is a widely held hypothesis that the Indian industry experienced a significant turnaround in its Total Factor Productivity Growth (TEPG) during the decade of the eighties as compared to the seventies. Recently it is argued that if the real value added is estimated by using the double deflation method, this hypothesis does not hold. It is also suggested that the double deflation method provides a more appropriate measure of the real value added. In the present paper, it is shown that the hypothesis of a significant increase in TFPG during the eighties in the Indian industries is clearly corroborated if sufficient care is taken about applying the double deflation method. Moreover, it is also argued that the double deflation method per se is not necessarily superior to the single deflation method for measuring the real value added.

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Working Papers | 1994

Indian Economic Forecast: July 1994

Rastogi A B

Boom conditions are prevailing in the economy but there is a danger of inflation raising its head again as the foreign exchange reserves go on increasing. The RBI's target of 55 billion of foreign capital which it can manage by open market policy will be breached very soon and the bank would be forced to abandon open market operations. With a flow of $ 5 - $ 10 billion, the RBI would be able to manage with some major changes in the monetary policy but a flow greater than $ 10 billion would force the government to go for full convertibility in March 1995. The government should take a bold step and reduce interest rates by another 2 to 3 percentage points. This would boost domestic investment, draw in imports and prick the ballooning foreign exchange reserves. It would also loosen the pressure on money supply and government deficit.

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Working Papers | 1994

The Bureaucratization of Drought Conditions: A Critique of Drought Policies

Vasavi A R

India's policies and programmes designed to address problems of drought prone areas represent a "Bureaucratic ethos" and a "development regime". Hinged on naturalistic and technocratic approaches to the definition and management of drought conditions, these programmes do not take into consideration the role of economic and social factors in the production and reproduction of drought conditions. Despite two decades of formulation and implementation the limitations of these programmes and policies have led to the denouement of conditions which have further exacerbated the degradation of these areas and the immeseration of people. Drought policies must shift from an excessive reliance on naturalistic indicators and take into consideration the ecological history and political economy of different regions. Policies to revive and sustain these regions must be grounded in the recognition of the ecological specificities of different regions and in enabling people to sustain their livelihoods.

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Working Papers | 1994

Ethical Issues in Prospecting Biodiversity

Anil K. Gupta

Biodiversity Treaty has recognized in an unequivocal manner the need for developing an accountable and equitable system for building relationship with people who conserve biodiversity and associated knowledge systems. Article 8J provides for 'involvement and approval' of the individual innovators, communities and others conserving biodiversity for accessing this resource in a manner that benefits are equitably shared. Article 15.5 stresses the need for prior informed consent. There are several other Articles of the Biodiversity Treaty which (a) legitimize national sovereignty over biodiversity resource, (b) provide mechanisms for technology transfer from countries which are advanced in technology but impoverished in biodiversity to the biodiversity rich but economically poor countries, (c) call for setting up clearing house of information etc. The treaty also provides for recognizing the importance of indigenous innovations and traditional knowledge system. The most important dilemma that one has to resolve deals with the responsibility of society towards those who have conserved biodiversity despite remaining poor. Obviously one cannot wish to keep people poor if one notices inevitable decline of biodiversity with increase in affluence. I discuss various questions that have to be addressed around seven issues or themes to help in the development of guidelines that may illuminate further deliberations on the subject. I hope we will be able to identify areas which are clear or unambiguous as distinct from areas where moral judgments have to be made. 1.) Accountability of researchers and biodiversity prospectors engaged by public or private sector in national or international organizations towards providers of biodiversity resource from wild, domesticated and public access resources. 2.) Accountability of researchers and biodiversity prospectors towards the countries from where resources are extracted. 3.) Accountability to profession engaged in generating universal knowledge and developing norms guiding this process. 4.) Accountability of international UN or other organizations which possess globally pooled germ plasm collections deposited in good faith but accessible to public and private corporations as well as other institutions without reciprocal responsibility. 5.) Natural resources as property governed by various kinds of property right regimes and consequent moral and ethical dilemmas. 6.) Accountability of civil society and consumers of products derived from prospected biodiversity or other competing alternatives. 7.) Accountability towards future generations.

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