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3819 items in total found

Journal Articles | 2020

stochastic loss reserving: A new perspective from a Dirichlet model

Karthik Sriram and Peng Shi

Journal of Risk and Insurance

Forecasting the outstanding claim liabilities to set adequate reserves is critical for a nonlife insurer's solvency. Chain–Ladder and Bornhuetter–Ferguson are two prominent actuarial approaches used for this task. The selection between the two approaches is often ad hoc due to different underlying assumptions. We introduce a Dirichlet model that provides a common statistical framework for the two approaches, with some appealing properties. Depending on the type of information available, the model inference naturally leads to either Chain–Ladder or Bornhuetter–Ferguson prediction. Using claims data on Worker's compensation insurance from several U.S. insurers, we discuss both frequentist and Bayesian inference.

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Journal Articles | 2020

Capacitated multi-period maximal covering location problem with server uncertainty

Amit Kumar Vatsa and Sachin Jayaswal

European Journal of Operational Research

We study the problem of assigning doctors to existing, non-operational Primary Health Centers (PHCs). We do this in the presence of clear guidelines on the maximum population that can be served by any PHC, and uncertainties in the availability of the doctors over the planning horizon. We model the problem as a robust capacitated multi-period maximal covering location problem with server uncertainty. Such supply-side uncertainties have not been accounted for in the context of multi-period facility location in the extant literature. We present an MIP formulation of this problem, which turns out to be too difficult for an off-the-shelf solver like CPLEX. We, therefore, present several dominance rules to reduce the size of the model. We further propose a Benders decomposition based solution method with several refinements that exploit the underlying structure of the problem to solve it extremely efficiently. Our computational experiments show one of the variants of our Benders decomposition based method to be on average almost 1000 times faster, compared to the CPLEX MIP solver, for problem instances containing 300 demand nodes and 10 facilities. Further, while the CPLEX MIP solver could not solve most of the instances beyond 300 demand nodes and 10 facilities even after 20 hours, two of our variants of Benders decomposition could solve instances upto the size of 500 demand nodes and 15 facilities in less than 0.5 hour, on average.

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Journal Articles | 2020

Modeling and design of container terminal operations

Debjit Roy, Rene De Koster, and Rene Bekker

Operations Research

The design of container terminal operations is complex because multiple factors affect operational performance. These factors include numerous choices for handling technology, terminal topology, and design parameters and stochastic interactions between the quayside, stackside, and vehicle transport processes. In this research, we propose new integrated queuing network models for rapid design evaluation of container terminals with automated lift vehicles and automated guided vehicles. These models offer the flexibility to analyze alternate design variations and develop insights. For instance, the effect of different vehicle dwell point policies is analyzed using state-dependent queues, whereas the efficient terminal layout is determined using variation in the service time expressions at the stations. We show the relation among the dwell point–dependent waiting times and also show their asymptotic equivalence at heavy traffic conditions. These models form the building blocks for design and analysis of large-scale terminal operations. We test the model efficacy using detailed in-house simulation experiments and real-terminal validation by partnering with an external party.

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Journal Articles | 2020

Using complier average causal effect estimation to examine student outcomes of the pax good behavior game when integrated with the PATHS curriculum

Catherine P. Bradshaw, Kathan Shukla, Elise T. Pas, Juliette K. Berg, and Nicholas S. Lalongo

Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research

A growing body of research has documented a link between variation in implementation dosage and outcomes associated with preventive interventions. Complier Average Causal Effect (CACE; Jo in J Educ Behav Stat 27:385-409, 2002) analysis allows for estimating program impacts in light of variation in implementation. This study reports intent-to-treat (ITT) and CACE findings from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) testing the impacts of the universal PAX Good Behavior Game (PAX GBG) integrated with Promoting Alternative Thinking Strategies (i.e., PATHS to PAX) and PAX GBG only compared to a control. This study used ratings by 318 K-5 teachers of 1526 at-risk children who, at baseline, were rated as displaying the top 33rd percentile of aggressive-disruptive behavior. Leveraging a prior study on these data (Berg et al. in Admin Policy Ment Health Ment Health Serv Res 44:558-571, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10488-016-0738-1 , 2017), CACE was defined as the effect of intervention assignment for compliers, using two compliance cut points (50th and 75th percentile), on posttest ratings of student academic engagement, social competence, peer relations, emotion regulation, hyperactivity, and aggressive-disruptive behavior. The ITT analyses indicated improvements for students in the integrated condition on ratings of social competence compared to the control condition. The CACE analyses also indicated significant effects of the integrated intervention on social competence, as well as academic engagement and emotion regulation for students in high compliance classrooms. These findings illustrate the importance of considering variation in implementation within the context of RCTs.

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Journal Articles | 2020

Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities

Vidhee Avashia and Amit Garg

Land Use Policy

Urban development induced land transitions affect urban hydrology, resulting in increased flooding risks. Climate change-related precipitation changes are an added complexity to the flood risks of cities. This study examines the role of land use changes in determining the occurrence of urban flooding events across 42 Indian cities under current and future climate change scenarios. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 have been processed using a hybrid classification technique to determine the land use shares for all cities. A typical event-count study using newspaper archives has been conducted to create a flooding event database. A multilevel model employing logistic mixed-effects approach was used. Future projections of the occurrence of flooding events for nine models under three climate change-related Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—2.6, 4.5, and 8.5—and three urban development scenarios have been carried out. The results suggest that cities should preserve the land uses that act as a sponge—the green, open and blue spaces. As these spaces decrease, the projected flooding events increase. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the number of flooding events is significantly lower (95 % confidence) than under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The expected flooding occurrences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are not significantly different (95 % confidence) for many scenarios, suggesting that Indian cities should aim for a world temperature increase of below 2 °C, or devastating consequences are imminent. This study highlights the need for Indian cities to undertake integrated spatial planning measures for a resilient, sustainable urban future.

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Journal Articles | 2020

Reducing stranded assets through early action in the Indian power sector

Aman Malik, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Despres, Johannes Emmerling, Shinichiro Fujimori, Amit Garg, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Ritu Mathur, Mark Roelfsema, Swapnil Shekhar, Saritha Vishwanathan, and Zoi Vrontisi

Environmental Research Letters

Cost-effective achievement of the Paris Agreement's long-term goals requires the unanimous phase-out of coal power generation by mid-century. However, continued investments in coal power plants will make this transition difficult. India is one of the major countries with significant under construction and planned increase in coal power capacity. To ascertain the likelihood and consequences of the continued expansion of coal power for India's future mitigation options, we use harmonised scenario results from national and global models along with projections from various government reports. Both these approaches estimate that coal capacity is expected to increase until 2030, along with rapid developments in wind and solar power. However, coal capacity stranding of the order of 133–237 GW needs to occur after 2030 if India were to pursue an ambitious climate policy in line with a well-below 2 °C target. Earlier policy strengthening starting after 2020 can reduce stranded assets (14–159 GW) but brings with it political economy and renewable expansion challenges. We conclude that a policy limiting coal plants to those under construction combined with higher solar targets could be politically feasible, prevent significant stranded capacity, and allow higher mitigation ambition in the future.

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Journal Articles | 2020

Why does technology integration fail? Teacher beliefs and content developer assumptions in an Indian initiative

Vijaya Sherry Chand, Ketan Satish Deshmukh, and Anurag Shukla

Educational Technology Research and Development

This paper explores technology integration and the role of teacher beliefs in this integration to assess a ‘smart-class’ initiative that was introduced in 3173 Grade 7–8 classrooms of 1609 public schools in India in 2017. It first reports on the impact of the initiative at the end of its first year, using a sample of 2574 children drawn from 155 project schools and 155 non-project schools. A two-level multivariate analysis did not indicate any significant effect of the project on student subject knowledge, attitude towards subject and subject self-efficacy beliefs. A follow-up interpretive study that used the open-ended responses of 170 project teachers and four in-depth case studies revealed that the e-content supplied supported some traditional beliefs of teachers while challenging others; the latter, however, led to resistance that hindered learning processes. Thus, both support and challenge seem to have led to a reproduction of the traditional classroom, resulting in no significant differences in outcomes between project and non-project classrooms. The paper calls for greater awareness among content developers of how their beliefs can subvert technology integration, and for supportive professional development of teachers that will help them incorporate technology in their pedagogical practice.

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Journal Articles | 2020

Relationships between leadership, motivation and employee-level innovation: evidence from India

Vishal Gupta

Personnel Review

Purpose

Integrating the behavioral theory of leadership, the componential theory of creativity and the self-determination theory (SDT), the study tests the relationships between leadership, work motivation (intrinsic motivation, integrated extrinsic motivation, extrinsic motivation) and employee-level innovation (innovative work behavior and innovation outcomes) in a work setting.

Design/methodology/approach

Data were collected using a survey questionnaire from 493 scientists working in India's largest civilian research and development (R&D) organization. The structural equation modeling (SEM) method was used to test the hypothesized relationships between the study variables.

Findings

The study found evidence for positive relationships between leadership, employee autonomous motivation (intrinsic and integrated extrinsic motivation) and employee-level innovation. The study shows that extrinsic motivation is positively related to innovation only when the value of rewards is integrated to one's sense of self (integrated extrinsic motivation). Extrinsic motivation, otherwise, is not related to innovation.

Research limitations

The study was cross-sectional, so inferences about causality are limited.

Practical implications

First, while extrinsic motivation is considered bad for innovation, the study provides evidence that integrated extrinsic motivation complements intrinsic motivation and encourages employee-level innovation. Second, the study shows that leaders can aid the process of development of autonomous motivation by displaying positive behaviors. Third, the study validates the mediating role of autonomous motivation for the leadership–innovation relationship.

Originality/value

The study provides an insight into the underlying process through which leaders can impact innovation at the workplace. To the best of the author's knowledge, such a study is the first of its kind undertaken in an organizational context.

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Journal Articles | 2020

PhD student experiences with the impostor phenomenon in STEM

Devasmita Chakraverty

International Journal of Doctoral Studies

Aim/Purpose

This US-based study explored various facets of impostor phenomenon experienced during PhD training in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). Specifically, the purpose of this research was to identify certain experiences that trigger this phenomenon.

Background

Competent high-achievers who do not believe in their efforts leading to accomplishments sometimes experience the impostor phenomenon. It is characterized by the notion that one has fooled others into overestimating their ability, not attributing one’s accomplishments to ability, and living with the fear of being discovered as a fraud.

Methodology

Data were collected using convenience and snowball sampling. Qualitative, semi-structured interviews from 90 PhD students were analyzed thematically.

Contribution

Study findings contribute to a less-understood area of what constitutes triggers for the impostor phenomenon among PhD students in STEM fields.

Findings

Participants described the following themes that triggered impostor phenomenon during PhD training: 1) Progress and public recognition, 2) Comparing oneself with others, 3) Developing skills: public speaking and scientific writing. 4) Application of new knowledge, and 5) Asking for help.

Recommendations for Practitioners

PhD faculty, mentors, advisers, and administrators should be cognizant of the triggers that could give rise to the impostor phenomenon among their students. Professional development activities for students could focus on earlier and more rigorous training for improving scientific communication.

Recommendation for Researchers

Future research should continue to explore if other stakeholders in academia such as postdoctoral trainees and faculty also experience similar stress due to the impostor phenomenon.

Impact on Society

Institutes of higher education should continue to focus on improving student mental health and retention rates, alleviating some of the PhD training stressors by designing interventions that improve students’ mindset and self-efficacy.

Future Research

Findings point to avenues for further research on how to support those with impostor phenomenon. Future research could explore the topic in other disciplines outside STEM and examine if long-term interventions could mitigate impostor-feelings, including the nature and length of interventions that could be helpful.

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Journal Articles | 2020

Identifying the drivers of luxury brand sales in emerging markets: An exploratory study

Sourav Borah, Amalesh Sharma, Mauli Soni, and Alok R Sahoo

Journal of Business Research

Luxury brands across the globe have made inroads into emerging markets (EM). While some brands have succeeded in one EM, they have failed to replicate their success in others. We investigate the drivers of luxury brand sales in EM using a multi-method approach. First, through a qualitative study, we identify which market characteristics of EM (market heterogeneity, competition from unbranded products, socio-political governance, and resources and infrastructure) affect luxury brand sales, with a firm’s marketing effort and a market’s financial freedom being important contingencies. Second, we empirically test the insights using data from 88 luxury brands and robust econometric analyses. Our results show that market characteristics influence luxury sales and that the effects of such market characteristics on luxury brand sales are heterogeneous. We also find significant moderating effects of marketing efforts and financial freedom. Our study thus extends the literature on the marketing of luxury brands and EM.

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