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2769 items in total found

Working Papers | 1986

Contributions to Judgement and Decision

Singh Ramadhar

This paper presents an overview of the theoretical, methodological, and applied contributions that the author's research program on prediction of performance has made to the literature on judgement and decision. It is shown that the rules people employ to combine information about motivation and ability in prediction of performance depend upon nature and difficulty of task as well as age, culture, and role of the judges. Also, subjects have separate initial opinions for cognitively distinct units, and they make imputations about unavailable information. Results from studies of school teachers and managers further disclosed that decision tasks have high construct validity and so they may be useful for selection and training purposes. New directions, for further research in judgment and decision are also discussed.

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Working Papers | 1986

Ecology, Market Forces and Design of Resource Delivery Systems: Socio-Ecological Perspective

Anil K. Gupta

Neglect of Ecological (i.e. edaphic, climatic and natural resource endowments besides man-biotic interactions) variables in organizational theory literature in west is understandable due to near complete subsumption of ecological forces by market forces. Such a neglect in developing agrarian societies is difficult to understand. The ecological forces shape the evolution of market forces in such societies. Any theory of organizations to be socially effective must be preceded by a theory of environments. The socio-ecological paradigm relying on interactions between four-S (space, season, sector and social stratification) provides one way of attempting unambiguous specification of organizations environments. Examples from various product, service and banking organizations are used to advance the above concept. There is a need for studying match or mismatch between portfolios of organizations with portfolio of economic enterprises evolved by different classes of rural producers in a historical context. The development is the process of reducing economic disparities, widening of individual decision making choices and extending time frame for appraising investment choices of the poor. The design and dynamics of developmental organizations can manifest these concerns best by explicit recognition of the challenges inherent in the transition of 'needs' poor have into demand they can articulate. The excessive reliance on market forces or voluntary organizations can not help bridge the regional, sectoral or social imbalances. The 'is' should not be allowed to become 'ought'. Values of researchers would need to be made explicit in this regard. Study of social articulation process particularly in backward regions endowed with risky ecologies will provide design avenues for socially responsive public and private organizations. The paper provides some arguments for reducing excessive reliance on study of intra-organizational variables in gearing organization towards the poor clients who can't protest, pester or persuade the researcher to do otherwise. At least at present.

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Working Papers | 1986

Creating Demand Systems in Drought Prone Regions: Random Thoughts and Personal Field Notes from a Group Action-Research Project-Journal-II

Anil K. Gupta

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad had initiated an action-research project in three districts with similar ecological and social stress but dissimilar administrative system. A group of faculty members from Centre for Management in Agriculture and Public Systems Group pursued the idea of creation of demand groups of poor by the local bureaucracy on itself. The hope was that generation of this demand might help in counteracting the demand from vested interests resulting in unfair distribution of resources, information and services. The first journal of this project was written by late Prof. Ravi J. Mathai and the draft (written in 1983) reported here was expected to be the second journal. However, it never could be discussed in the group at length and hence remains author's individual understanding and account of a group action-research endeavour. It is hoped that various hypothesis which were generated might provoke more comprehensive, sustained and meaningful explorations by other colleagues. The ethical issues in initiating an endeavour of this sort without taking it to its logical conclusions will be discussed separately.

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Working Papers | 1986

Demand-Supply Management of Forest Based Cellulosic Raw Materials for the Paper Industry in India

Gupta Tirath

The study focuses on bamboo and hardwoods which are the most important cellulosic raw materials for the paper and paperboards industry in India. There are perceptions of acute scarcities of these goods caused by rapid growth of the industry, competing demands, spurt of through regarding conflicts between environmental quality and production of tangible goods, inadequate management of natural wealth in the form of forest land, etc. Feasibilities of a few conventional and unconventional measures to enhance the productivity of common property wastelands in and outside the regular forest areas have been assessed. These include provision of additional approach roads and bridges, reduction of waste in harvesting, marginal technological changes such as use of portable mini chippers, improved silvicultural and biological management of natural forest areas, broader interpretation of the term plantations to able to harness the established root stock of hardy tree species, etc. It has been reasoned that productivity of two-thirds of India's forest land can be substantially enhanced within 8-10 years without making intensive use of capital and trained manpower, and this is the surest way to resolve the conflict between industrial and other uses of the forest produce, to obviate the need for conscious demand management, and to manage and enhance the quality of biophysical environment.

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Working Papers | 1986

Pricing Policy of Forest Based Cellulosic Raw Materials for the Paper Industry in India

Gupta Tirath

The state governments and the paper making companies have been entering into long term agreements which specify duration of supply of agreed quantities of bamboo and pulpwood, royalty rates (note price), extent and frequency of revision in royalty rates, etc. the royalty rates have been extremely low mainly because these products from natural forests were trated as free goods. Though the rates have been enhanced by 300 to 400 per cent during the last 10 years, yet the principles for determining them have not been specified in a logical and accepted framework. On the contrary, conscious and unconscious attempts have been made at evading the issues. In this paper, logic and practicability of a number of suggested bases for pricing (not royalty) have been assessed. None of them can fully satisfy the concerned parties but, in the short run, a combination of past and current royalty rates, general price index, market price of comparable goods, etc. can be used for fixing administered prices of the natural forest products used by the manufacturing sector. The most viable alternative in the long run could be the cost of production from manmade plantations. The total demand for palpable materials need not be met from manmade plantations. The yield from natural forests can be substantially enhanced, and possibly at lower marginal costs. Experiences of pricing the materials from plantation crops should be available in not too distant a future, and should be usable for pricing the materials from natural forests with adjustments for differences in harvesting and handling costs, quality, etc. Pricing of outputs from industrial plantations raised by the forestry system need not necessarily equal the production costs. Adjustments on lower or higher side may have to be made to achieve wider socio-economic objectives: reduction in quantity of chemicals, power, water, consumer per unit of the industrial outputs; changes in the mix of conventional and unconventional raw materials; etc. An exercise for assigning weights to the variables can be carried out to facilitate objective policy formulation. Some of the prerequisites for that would be dispensation of current tensions between governments/forestry system and the industry and their willingness to share the quantitative and qualitative information.

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Working Papers | 1986

Dividend Rate and Variation in Share Prices: An Exploration into their Inter-Relationship

Ravindra H. Dholakia and Bhat Ramesh

Return and risk are the two acknowledged characteristics affecting investment decision of investors in securities market. The literature on the relationship between these two characteristics provides ample evidence about the interdependencies between them. The present study takes a view that risk should not be considered a one dimensional variable. An attempt has therefore been made in the present paper to decompose this characteristic into risk in dividend and uncertainty in capital gains. Two alternative explanations for the nature of their interdependencies and provides cross-section-one period analysis of dividend and share price variables. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesized relationships between the two dimensions of risk.

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Working Papers | 1986

Prediction of Job Performance by Indian Managers: Four Tests of the Two-Stage Averaging-Multiplying Model

Singh Ramadhar and Upadhyaya Sushil K

Prediction of job performance from information about motivation and ability of subordinates was studied. Experiment 1 made the first test by manipulating reliability of information with managers (n = 22) and professors (n = 22). At the first stage of integration, subjects averaged motivation and ability information with their corresponding initial opinions. At the second stage, however, they integrated motivation and ability information differently. Managers followed the multiplying rule; professors followed the constant-weight averaging rule. Experiment 2 (n = 22) paired three or one motivation cue with one ability cue. Predictions from information about either motivation or ability were also obtained. The three motivation cues were first averaged and then multiplied by ability as Test 2 predicted. The combined factorial plots of the Motivation x Ability effects from the two-cue and four-cue descriptions also had the linear fan pattern prescribed by Test 3. However, Test 4, which predicted that the initial opinion of the unavailable information would multiply the given information, needed an additional parameter of imputed value for the unavailable information. Theoretical, methodological, and practical implications of the results were discussed.

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Working Papers | 1986

Economic Importance of Biogas in Integrated Rural Energy System

Moulik T K and P. R. Shukla

This paper discusses the impact of dung availability and economic importance of biogas plants in Integrated Rural Energy System (IRES). Fixed Cost, maintenance cost, feedstock cost and manpower costs of community biogas plant are presented. IRES selection for four villages using the Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model is presented. Analysis of selection of IRES and energy is presented. Analysis of selection of IRES and energy costs with short term and long term policies of improving dung availability is given which highlights the importance of biogas plants in IRES and costs of energy to a village.

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Working Papers | 1986

Integrated Rural Energy System: Planning and Organization

Moulik T K and P. R. Shukla

This paper discusses the process and methodology for the Integrated Rural Energy System (IRES) and organization of IRES. The planning includes methodology for estimation of village energy needs and energy resources, information and data on alternate energy systems available, model for optimal IRES selection for a village, installation and maintenance of IRES and strategies for and implications of energy resources development. Organizational issues considered include various interfaces among village organization and different agencies involved in implementation of IRES. The IRES planning and organization issues presented are supported and highlighted by the extensive studies conducted by the authors and their experience in IRES planning and organization.

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Working Papers | 1986

Crew Scheduling in Indian Railways - A Case Study of Vadodara Division Passenger Train Crews

G. Raghuram, V. Venkata Rao, and Saha Jahar

In this paper we discuss the crew scheduling problem in Indian Railways and propose a methodology to minimize crew requirements. In Particular, we deal with the scheduling of passenger train crews in Vadodara Division of Western Railway. In Part-I of the paper, we describe the organization of Indian Railways, highlight the decision making process and give a brief description of the crew categories. We end Part-I by giving the regulations relevant for the scheduling decisions and a formulation of the problem as of determining a 'crew link' that requires minimum number of crews. In Part-III we describe the 'A-D Sequence' methodology and discuss how this is used in evaluating a 'Crew Link' for the drivers of express trains in Vadodara Division. In conclusion, we remark that the methodology is very general and it could be used for scheduling of all category of crews for passenger trains.

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