- Financial support vis-a-vis share of wind generation: Is there an inflection point? (with Dipti Gupta and Amit Garg), Energy (2019), 181, 1064-1074.
- Inflation expectations in India: Learning from household tendency surveys (with Kajal Lahiri and Yongchen Zhao), International Journal of Forecasting (2019), 35(3), 980-993.
Nowcasting sales growth of manufacturing companies in India (with Anirban Sanyal), Applied Economics, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1324613.
Forecasting Inflation with Mixed Frequency Data in India (with Bikash Maji), Calcutta Statistical Association Bulletin, 2017, 68(1&2) 92–110. DOI: 10.1177/0008068316668421.
Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM): The role of reference rate (with Ramesh Jangili), Statistical Journal of the IAOS, 2017, 33, 515–524, DOI 10.3233/SJI-160280.
Mark-up and Efficiency of Indian Banks: An Input Distance Function Approach (with Subal Kumbhakar), Empirical Economics, 2016, 51:1689–1719, DOI 10.1007/s00181- 015-1062- 4.
Effects of Derivatives usage and Financial Statement accounting items on Indian Banks' Stocks' Unsystematic and Systematic Risk Measures (with G. Banerjee, S. Shetty and K. Jana), Journal of Economics and Finance, 2016, DOI 10.1007/s12197-016- 9366-6.
- An Application of Quah and Vahey's Structural Vector Auto Regression Methodology for Estimating Core Inflation in India: A Note (with Joice John and Sanjay Singh), Journal of Quantitative Economics, DOI 10.1007/s40953-015-0023-2, 2015.
- Real Time Business Conditions Index: A Statistically Optimal Framework for India (with Dipankar Biswas and Nivedita Banerjee), Reserve Bank of India Occasional Paper, 33(1 & 2), 2014. An earlier version in the same title was published in the RBI Working Paper Series, WPS(DEPR), 3/2011.
- Sensitivity of Investment and Growth to Changes in Real Interest Rates in India (with S. Pattanaik, H. Behera, R. Kavediya, A. K. Shrivastava and H. Joshi), Prajnan (NIBM), Journal of Social and Management Sciences, XLIII (1), April-June 2014. An earlier version titled ‘Real Interest Rate impact on Investment and Growth – What the Empirical Evidence for India Suggests?' was published as RBI Project Research Study https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=15113.
- Estimation of Counterfeit Currency Notes in India – Alternative Methodologies, (with Sanjoy Bose), RBI Working Paper Series, WPS(DEPR), 03/2013.
- Corporate Pricing Power, Inflation and IIP Growth: An Empirical Investigation (with Angshuman Hait and Joice John), RBI Working Paper Series, WPS(DEPR), 09/2013.
- Productivity and efficiency dynamics in Indian banking: an input distance function approach incorporating quality of inputs and outputs (with Subal Kumbhakar), Journal of Applied Econometrics 27, 2012.
- Inflation Threshold in India: An Empirical Investigation (with Joice John, A. B. Chakraborty and Deepak Mohanty), RBI Working Paper Series, WPS(DEPR), 18/2011.
- Fan Chart: Methodology and its Application to Inflation Forecasting in India (with Nivedita Banerjee), RBI Working Paper Series, WPS(DEPR), 5/2011.
- Balance sheet accounting factors and capital market risk exposure (with G. Banerjee), International Journal of Finance, 22, 2010.
- Distribution of Cost and Profit Efficiency of Indian Banking (with Subhash Ray), European Journal of Operations Research, 201, 2010.
- Financial deregulation and profit efficiency: A nonparametric analysis of Indian banks (with Saibal Ghosh), Journal of Economics and Business, 61(6), 2009.
- Measuring Core Inflation in India (with Joice John and Sanjay Singh), Indian Economic Review, 44 (2), 2009.
- Estimation of Potential Output in India, (with S. Bordoloi and R. Jangili), Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, Monsoon, 30(2), 2009.
- Impact of Agricultural Credit on Agricultural Production: An Empirical Analysis in India, (with Manjusha Senapati and Joice John), Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, Monsoon, 30(2), 2009.
- Hedonic Quality Adjustments for Real Estate Prices in India (with Manjusha Senapati and Joice John), Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, Summer, 30(1), 2009.
- Determinants of Credit Risk in Indian State-owned Banks: An Empirical Investigation (with Saibal Ghosh), Economic Issues, 12(2), 2008.
- GDP Deflator vis-à-vis other Price Indices in India: An Exploratory Study (with Manjusha Senapati), The Journal of Income and Wealth, 29(1), 2008.
- Financial Deregulation and Efficiency: An Empirical Analysis of Indian Banks during the Post Reform Period (with Saibal Ghosh), Review of Financial Economics, 15(3), 2007.
- Profitability of Indian Corporate Sector: Productivity, Price or Growth? (with Manjusha Senapati), Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, Winter, 28(3), 2007.
- Labour-use Efficiency in Indian Banking: A Branch-level Analysis (with Subhash Ray and Ashok K. Nag), Omega,International Journal of Management Science, 37(2), 2007.
- Estimation of Stable Fertility Rate of Indian States: An Application of Population Evolution Model, Demography India, 35(4), 2007.
- Scale Economies, Cost Complementarities and Technical Progress in Indian Banking: Evidence from Fourier Flexible Functional Form, (with Sangeeta Das), Applied Economics, 39(5), 2007.
- Demographic Statistics in India: Why Shall We Take the Electoral Roll Seriously? (with Kaushik Bhattacharya and Anujit Mitra), Demography India, 36(1), 2007.
- Banking Sector's Output in National Accounts: Measurement issues (with A. B. Chakraborty), Economic and Political Weekly, 42(37), 2007.
- Banking Sector's Output in National Accounts: Measurement Issues in the Light of SNA Revision" (with A. B. Chakraborty), The Journal of Income and Wealth, 27 (1&2), 2007.
- Central Banks Output in GDP: Issues and Measurement, The Journal of Income and Wealth, 27 (1&2), 2007.
- State-wise Estimates of Financial Savings of Household Sector: An Exploratory Study" (with K. S. Ramachandra Rao and Ramesh Jangili), The Journal of Income and Wealth, 28(1), 2007.
- Commercial Banks' Lending to Small Scale Industry – An Account (with K. S. Ramachandra Rao and A. K. Singh), Economic and Political Weekly, March 2006.
- Depositor Discipline in the Banking Sector in India: An Empirical Investigation (with Saibal Ghosh), Journal of Quantitative Economics, 19(1), 2005.
- Market Discipline, Capital Adequacy and Bank Behaviour, (with Saibal Ghosh) in Economic and Political Weekly, 40(12), 2005.
- Liberalization, Ownership, and Efficiency in Indian Banking: A Nonparametric Approach (with Subhash Ray and A. K. Nag), Economic and Political Weekly, 40(12), 2005.
- Examining Excess Capacity in Regional Rural Banks: Some Empirical Insights for India (with Saibal Ghosh), Prajnan, Vol. XXXIII (4), NIBM, January – March, 2005.
- Dynamics of Market Structure and Competitiveness of the Banking Sector in India and its Impact on Outputs and Prices of Banking Services (with Kaushik Bhattacharya), Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 2005.
- Size, Non-performing Loan, Capital and Productivity Change: Evidence from in Indian State-owned Banks (with Saibal Ghosh), Journal of Quantitative Economics, 18(3), 2005.
- Risk, Capital and Operating Efficiency: Evidence from Indian Public Sector Banks (with Saibal Ghosh), Indian Journal of Economics and Business, 1(1), June 2004.
- Efficiency of Indian Commercial Banks during the Reform Period (with S. Rangasamy), Applied Financial Economics, 14, 2004.
- Non-performing Loan, Capital and Productivity Change: Evidence from Indian State-owned Banks, (with Saibal Ghosh), Global Journal of Finance and Economics, 1(1), March 2004.
- Corporate Governance in Indian Banking System: An Empirical Investigation (with Saibal Ghosh), Economic and Political Weekly, Special issue, March 2004.
- The Relationship between Risk and Capital: Evidence from Indian Public Sector Banks (with Saibal Ghosh), Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, Summer, Monsoon, Winter, 2003.
- Market Discipline in Indian Bank: Does the Data Tell a Story, (with Saibal Ghosh), NSE Newsletters, April 2003.
- Market Discipline in Indian Banking: An Empirical Exploration (with Saibal Ghosh), NSE Research Initiative No. 82, 2003, NSE: Mumbai.
- Credit Growth and Response to Capital Requirements: Evidence from Indian Public Sector Banks (with A. K. Nag), Economic and Political Weekly, Vol.XXXXII, August 1-7, 2002.
- Risk and Productivity Change of Indian Public Sector Banks, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol.XXXVII, February 2-8, 2002.
- Bootstrap Confidence Interval of the Efficiency Estimate of Commercial Banks in India (with T. V. Ramanathan), International Journal for Development Banking, December 2000.
- Fertility Transition and Threshold Estimation, Journal of Social and Economic Development, 3(2), July-December 2001.
- Socio-Economic Development in India: A Regional Analysis, Development and Society, 28, Dec.1999.
- Efficiency of Public Sector Banks: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Model, Prajnan, National Institute of Bank Management, July-September 1999.
- An Approach to Evaluate the Performance of Public sector Banks in India (with P. C. Sarker), Journal of Applied Economics- International Quarterly, October-December, 1999.
- Profitability of Public Sector Banks in India: A Decomposition Model, Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, Summer, 1999.
- Portfolio Risks and Economies of Scale in Banking: The Indian Case, International Journal for Development Banking, July-December, 1998.
- Temporal Causality between Government Taxes and Spending: An Application of Error Models (with Sangeeta Das), Prajnan, National Institute for Bank Management, April-June, 1998.
- Measurement of Productive Efficiency and its Decomposition in Indian Banking Firms, The Asian Economic Review, December 1997.
- Development of Composite Index of Banking Efficiency – The Indian Case (with P. C. Sarker), Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, December, 1997.
- Technical, Allocative and Scale Efficiency of Public Sector Banks in India, Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, June, 1997.
- Structural Changes and Asset-liability Mismatch of Commercial Banks in India, Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, December, 1996.
Publication in Book Chapters/Others
63.Competition in Metropolitan Banking Market in India: Are Public and Private Sector Banks Doing Equally Well? (with Kaushik Bhattacharyya) in "Competitiveness in India", etd. by Shailendra Singh (IIM Lucknow), MacMillan, 2011.
64.Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Perspective, "Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Perspective", (with Joice John) United Nations Statistics Division, unstats.un.org/unsd/Identifying_ Bubbles/Identifying_Bubbles.htm, 2011.
65.Market Discipline in Indian Banking: Does the Data Tell a Story?", DE-NOVA Publications, NY.
66.Profitability of Indian Corporate Sector: Productivity, Price or Growth? (with Manjusha Senapati), in Economic Developments in India, 135, Academic Foundation, 2009. An earlier version of the same article appeared in Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, Winter, 28(3), 2007.
67.Examining the Relationship among Capital, Risk and Productivity: Evidence from Indian Public Sector Banks", in Trade, Finance and Development, edited by Biswajit Chatterjee and Ajitava Raychaudhuri. New Delhi, Deep and Deep, 2004.
68.Determinants of Interest Spread of Indian Scheduled Commercial Banks: Quantile Regression Approach", Models and Methods in Econometrics, Proceedings of 39th Annual Conference of the Indian Econometric Society, Oxford University Press.
69.Technical, Allocative and Scale Efficiency of Public Sector Banks in India", in "Money, Finance and Banking", Vasudevan A. (edt.), Academic Foundation, 2003.
70.Portfolio Management: Behaviour of Major Banking Aggregates in India", (with Anupam Prakash), BECON 2001, Special Volume.
- Asymmetries in Inflation Expectations: A Study Using IESH Quantitative Survey Data (with Kajal Lahiri, Y. Zhao) (Asymmetries in Inflation Expectations- PDF File).
- The Transmission of Monetary Policy within Banks: Evidence from India (with N. Prabhala and P. Mishra) (PDF File).
- The Anatomy of a Banking Panic (with Nirupama Kulkarni, N. Prabhala and P. Mishra).(The anotomy of banking panic- PDF File).
- Mark-up, Efficiency and Financial Stability: Evidence from Indian Banking (with Subal Kumbhakar).
- A Note on the Dynamics of the Components of Wholesale Price Index in India (with A. Ghosh Roy).
- Corporate Social Responsibility, Firm Ownership, and Performance (with Saibal Ghosh).
- Heterogeneity, Persistence and Time Varying Efficiency of Indian Banks (with Subal Kumbhakar).
- The MPSS and Target Setting for Optimal Scale of Indian Bank Branches (with Subhash Ray and Kankana Mukherjee).
- Financial Deregulation, Efficiency and Productivity Dynamics of Indian Banks (with Subhash Ray and Kankana Mukherjee).
- Monetary Policy, Payment System and Financial Stability (with R. Townsend).
- The complementarity between infrastructure investment and finance – evidence from the GQ highway system (with Ramana Nanda and others).
- Transmission of Monetary Policy in India – A Disaggregated Analysis (with P. Mitra and Joice John).
- Role of Inflation Expectations in Estimating a Phillips Curve for India.
- Profit Efficiency and Return on Equity of Indian Banks.
- Monetary Policy in a Channel Framework (with Joice John).
- Monetary policy and Taylor rule in India (with Joice John).
- Financial Deregulation, Efficiency and Productivity Dynamics of Indian Banks (with Subhash Ray and Kankana Mukherjee), International DEA Conference, Prague, June 27-29, 2017.
- Asymmetries in Inflation Expectations: A Study Using IESH Quantitative Survey Data –IMF Workshop on Forecasting, April 26-27, 2017, Washington DC.
- Asymmetries in Inflation Expectations: A Study Using IESH Quantitative Survey Data –Seminar at SUNY Albany, NY, May 2, 2017, Albany.
- Labor-Cost Efficiency with Indivisible Outputs and Inputs: A Study of Indian Bank Branches, 14 th International Conference on Data Envelopment Analysis, Wuhan,China – May 23 to 26, 2016
- Inflation Expectations and Phillips Curve for India. Presented at the Delhi ISI Macro Conference February 2013.
- Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Perspective. Presented at the 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statistics, New Delhi, 2011.
- Quality of inputs, outputs and efficiency of banks. Presented at the 47th Annual Conference of the Indian Econometric Society, January 6-8, 2010 Indore.
- India's growth prospects. Presented from RBI at the STEP conference, OECD, October 25-26, 2010 Paris.
- Profit Efficiency and Return on Equity: Evidence from Indian Banking. Presented in the DEA Symposium, Indian School of Business, Hyderabad, January 5-7, 2007.
- Cost and Profit Efficiency: Evidence from Indian Banking. Presented in the North American Productivity Workshop (NAPW), held at Stern Business School, New York University during June 28 – June 30, 2006.
- Banking Sector's Output in National Accounts - Measurement Issues in the light of SNA Revision. Presented in the seminar jointly organized by Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR) and Economic and Political Weekly Research Foundation (EPWRF) on March 29, 2006.
- Bank Efficiency and Accounting Ratios. Presented in the 8th Annual Conference on Money, Models and Methods in Economics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, January 27-29, 2006.
- State-wise estimates of financial savings of household sector - An exploratory study. Presented at conference of the Indian Association for Research in National Income and Wealth (IARNIW) held at Bhubaneswar during December 15-16, 2006.
- Central Banks Output in GDP: Issues and Measurement. Presented at the conference of the Indian Association for Research in National Income and Wealth (IARNIW) held at Bhubaneswar during December 15-16, 2006.
- District-Level Development of Maharashtra: A Peripheral View from Banking Perspective. Presented in the Seminar on Perspectives on Maharashtra's Economy, Department of Economics, Mumbai University, March 11 and 12, 2004.
- Homogeneity in Performance: An empirical exploration on Indian Banking. Presented in the 40th Annual Conference of the Indian Econometric Society, Bangalore, 2004.
- State-wise Estimates of Financial Savings of Household Sector: An Exploratory Study. Presented in the Conference of Indian Association in Research and National Income and Wealth (IARNIW), Jaipur, January 16-18, 2004.
- Efficiency of Indian Banks during Post-Reform Period: A DEA Approach. Presented in the International Conference on Operations Research, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, January 8 to 10, 2004.
- Determinants of Credit Risk of Indian State-owned Banks: An Empirical Investigation. Presented in the 4thInternational Conference on Money, Investment and Risk, the Nottingham Trent University, UK, 2003.
- Determinants of Interest Spread of Indian Scheduled Commercial Banks: Quantile Regression Approach. Presented in the 39th Annual Conference of the Indian Econometric Society, Baroda, 2003.
- Capital, Non-performing Loan and Productivity: Empirical Evidence from Indian Public Sector Banks. Presented in the Annual Conference on Contemporary Issues in Development Economics, Jadavpur University, 2001.
- Bootstrap Confidence Interval of the Efficiency Estimate of Commercial Banks in India. Presented in the 35thAnnual Conference of the Indian Econometric Society, Indore, 1999.
- SAS "Users Group International Conference" during September 20 to September 22 1999, Sydney, Australia.
Work in Committees and Groups
- Member of the Expert Committee on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, 2019.
- Member of the Working Group of NSS 77th Round Survey, NSSO, MOSPI, 2018.
- Member of the Expert Committee on WPI (2011-12), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, 2017.
- Member of the Committee on Online Data Reporting, National Statistical Commission,2017.
- Member of the Internal Working Group to Revisit the Existing Priority Sector Lending Guidelines, RBI, 2015.
- Member of the Sub-Committee for the development of methodology for compilation of Index of Service Production for Insurance Sector, CSO, 2015.
- Member of the Core Group from RBI for compilation of PPI, Government of India, 2015.
- Internal Technical Group member from RBI for the Expert Committee to Revise and Strengthen the Monetary Policy Framework (Chairman: Urjit Patel), 2014.
- Member of the Committee on Data and Information Management in the Reserve Bank of India, 2014.
- Member of the G-20 Study Group on Commodity Price Volatility, 2011.
- Internal Technical Group member from RBI for the Working Group on Operative Procedures of Monetary Policy (Chairman: Deepak Mohanty), 2011.
- Member of the Working Group on De-Seasonalisation of Price Index series, set up by CSO, 2010.
- Internal Group member from RBI for the RBI-SEBI Technical Committee on Interest Rate Futures, 2009.
- Internal Group member from RBI for the RBI-SEBI Technical Committee on Currency Futures, 2008.
- Internal Technical Group member from RBI for the High Level Committee on Saving and Capital Formation (Chairman: C. Rangarajan), 2008.
- Internal Technical Group member from RBI for the Working Group on the Revision of Wholesale Price Index, various revisions.
- Internal Technical Group member from RBI for the ‘Service Sector Price Index' set up Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Office of the Economic Adviser.
- Internal Technical Group member from RBI the committee on 'Estimation of GDP and FISIM in respect of UTI and other Mutual Funds' set up by CSO, 2005.
- Internal Technical Group member from RBI for the Sub-Group on the integration of CPI(U) and CPI(UNME) under TAC on SPCL, 2006.
- Internal Technical Group member from RBI on financial sector for "National Statistical Commission", 1999-2000.
Business Inflation Expectations Survey
The Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES) provides ways to examine the amount of slack in the economy by polling a panel of business leaders about their inflation expectations in the short and medium term.
The survey asks questions about year-ahead cost expectations and factors influencing price changes, such as profit, sales levels, etc. The survey is unique in that it goes straight to businesses, the price setters, rather than to consumers or households, to understand their expectations of the price level changes. One major advantage of BIES is that one can get a probabilistic assessment of inflation expectations and thus a measure of uncertainty. It also provides an indirect assessment of overall demand condition of the economy. Results of this will thus be useful in understanding the inflation expectation of business and complement other macro data required for policy making.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is the purpose of the survey?
Inflation expectations are one of the main drivers of current inflation, because expected inflation influences current wage negotiations, price setting, financial contracting for investment and consumption. These are also used to generate inflation forecasts. If economic agents view the central bank as credible, inflation expectations are more likely to be well anchored, further enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Also better anchored inflation expectations lead to lower inflation persistence. Because of this link, central banks can affect current and future inflation by better anchoring agents' expectations of long-term inflation. Therefore, understanding inflation expectations are critical for achieving price stability. But our understanding of inflation expectations is limited. This is partly due to measurement issues as they are not directly observed. That is why Bernanke (2007) called for more emphasis on incorporating learning and imperfect information in the modelling of inflation and of inflation expectations. While understanding inflation expectation of household is important, it is also imperative to capture expectations of firms and business owners. Since business representatives participate directly in setting prices and wages, more insight into the inflation expectations of price setters over different time horizons would be helpful for policy-makers. Availability of this data has enormous potential for research and macroeconomic policy making, particularly for monetary policy. This has gained further importance as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has formally moved to inflation targeting. This data will be valuable for firms/companies for setting their own business goals as well.
2. How is the survey conducted?
Each month, during the second week, panelists receive an e-mail with a secure link to the online survey. The survey is open till the third week of the month.
3. Who participates in the survey?
Companies are selected based on certain sampling criteria from the list of companies as available with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA). Approximately 5000 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses from various sectors like manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, suppliers, transport, construction, etc. The size composition of the panel roughly reflects 39% small, 37% medium and 24% large businesses.
BIES – February 2020
A. Inflation expectations
- One year ahead business inflation expectation, as estimated from the mean of individual probability distribution of unit cost increase, has further increased to 3.85% from 3.62% reported in January 2020.Though it has remained under 4%for over a year, business inflation expectation has been steadily increasing since October 2019.Trajectory of one year ahead business inflation expectations is presented in Chart 1.
- Uncertainty of business inflation expectation, as captured by the square root of the average variance of the individual probability distribution of unit cost increase,has remained around 2% fromDecember 2019 to February 2020.
Chart 1: One year ahead business inflation expectations (%)
- Respondents were also asked to project one year ahead CPI headline inflation through an additional question using a probability distribution. This question is repeated every alternate month, coinciding with the month of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announcement.
- Survey results indicate that businesses in February 2020 expect one year ahead CPI headline inflation to be 4.03%, slightly down from 4.22% reported in December 2019, with a relatively low standard deviation of around 1.0% (Chart 2).
Chart 2: Expected CPI headline inflation(one year ahead)
- The cost perceptions data showsearly signs of cost pressures building up.
- Now, nearly 50% of the firms believe that the current cost increase is 3.1% and above as compared to the same time last year. Over30% of the firms perceive that the current cost increase is over 6%. Importantly, over 15% firms now perceive that current cost increase is over 10%(Chart 3).
Chart 3: How do current costs per unit compare with this time last year? – % responses
C. Sales Levels
- In February 2020, over 64% of the firms report that sales are much less than normal as against 45% reported in January 2020.
- Around 85% of the firms in the sample report that sales are ‘somewhat or much less than normal' as against 70% reporting in January 2020(Chart 4). Note that this proportion has remained around 70% since June 2019.
Chart 4: Sales Levels - % response
D. Profit Margins
- The proportion of firms in the sample reporting ‘much less than normal' profit has jumped up by over 20% to 65% in February 2020. Over 87% of the firms in the sample expect ‘much less than normal or somewhat less than normal' profit margins (Chart 5). Note that this proportion has remainedaround 75%since June 2019.
Chart 5: Profit Margins - % response
Take the Survey
In case you are interested in taking the survey, please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
In case you have any comments/suggestions for the project, please send an email to email@example.com.