About
The Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES) provides ways to examine the amount of slack in the economy by polling a panel of business leaders about their inflation expectations in the short and medium term.
The survey asks questions about year-ahead cost expectations and factors influencing price changes, such as profit, sales levels, etc. The survey is unique in that it goes straight to businesses, the price setters, rather than to consumers or households, to understand their expectations of the price level changes. One major advantage of BIES is that one can get a probabilistic assessment of inflation expectations and thus a measure of uncertainty. It also provides an indirect assessment of overall demand condition of the economy. Results of this will thus be useful in understanding the inflation expectation of business and complement other macro data required for policy making.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the purpose of the survey?
Inflation expectations are one of the main drivers of current inflation, because expected inflation influences current wage negotiations, price setting, financial contracting for investment and consumption. These are also used to generate inflation forecasts. If economic agents view the central bank as credible, inflation expectations are more likely to be well anchored, further enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Also better anchored inflation expectations lead to lower inflation persistence. Because of this link, central banks can affect current and future inflation by better anchoring agents' expectations of long-term inflation. Therefore, understanding inflation expectations are critical for achieving price stability. But our understanding of inflation expectations is limited. This is partly due to measurement issues as they are not directly observed. That is why Bernanke (2007) called for more emphasis on incorporating learning and imperfect information in the modelling of inflation and of inflation expectations. While understanding inflation expectation of household is important, it is also imperative to capture expectations of firms and business owners. Since business representatives participate directly in setting prices and wages, more insight into the inflation expectations of price setters over different time horizons would be helpful for policy-makers. Availability of this data has enormous potential for research and macroeconomic policy making, particularly for monetary policy. This has gained further importance as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has formally moved to inflation targeting. This data will be valuable for firms/companies for setting their own business goals as well.
How is the survey conducted?
Each month, during the second week, panelists receive an e-mail with a secure link to the online survey. The survey is open till the third week of the month.
Who participates in the survey?
Companies are selected based on certain sampling criteria from the list of companies as available with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA). Approximately 5000 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses from various sectors like manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, suppliers, transport, construction, etc. The size composition of the panel roughly reflects 39% small, 37% medium and 24% large businesses.
Latest Report
Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES)1 – September 2023
A. Inflation expectations
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One year ahead business inflation expectation, as estimated from the mean of individual probability distribution of unit cost increase, has marginally increased to 4.39% in September 2023, from 4.32% reported in August 2023. Average inflation expectation of the firms remained anchored around 4.3% for the past five consecutive months. The trajectory of one year ahead business inflation expectations is presented in Chart 1.
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The uncertainty of business inflation expectations in September 2023, as captured by the square root of the average variance of the individual probability distribution of unit cost increase, has remained high around 2.1%.
Chart 1: One year ahead business inflation expectations (%)
B. Costs
- The cost perceptions data in September 2023 does not indicate any significant increase in cost pressures.
1 The Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES) provides ways to examine the amount of slack in the economy by polling a panel of business leaders about their inflation expectations in the short and medium term. This monthly survey asks questions about year-ahead cost expectations and the factors influencing price changes, such as profit, sales levels, etc. The survey is unique in that it goes straight to businesses - the price setters - rather than to consumers or households, to understand their expectations of the price level changes. One major advantage of BIES is that one can get a probabilistic assessment of inflation expectations and thus get a measure of uncertainty. It also provides an indirect assessment of overall demand condition of the economy. Results of this Survey are, therefore, useful in understanding the inflation expectations of businesses and complement other macro data required for policy making. With this objective, the BIES is conducted monthly at the Misra Centre for Financial Markets and Economy, IIMA. A copy of the questionnaire is annexed.
Companies are selected primarily from the manufacturing sector. Starting in May 2017, the “BIES – September 2023” is the 77th round of the Survey. These results are based on the responses of around 1100 companies
- The percentage of firms perceiving significant cost increase (over 6%) has remained unchanged around 33% during last four rounds.
Chart 2: How do current costs per unit compare with this time last year? – % responses
C. Sales Levels
- About 56% of the firms are reporting ‘much less than normal’ or ‘somewhat less than normal’ sales in September 2023 – up from 52% reported in August 2023.
- The percentage of firms reporting ‘normal’ and above normal sales has marginally declined to 45% in September 2023 from 47% reported in August 2023 (Chart 3)2.
Chart 3: Sales Levels - % response
2 "Normal" means as compared to the average level obtained in the preceding 3 years, excluding the Covid-19 period.
D. Profit Margins
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Around 36% of the firms in September 2023 are reporting profit margins to be ‘about normal’ or greater, as compared to 39% reported in August 2023 (Chart 4).
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Overall, the profit margins expectations have remained somewhat subdued.
Chart 4: Profit Margins - % response
Business Inflation Expectation Survey (BIES) – Questionnaire
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A. Current Business Conditions Q1. How do your current PROFIT MARGINS@ compare with "normal"* times? Q2. How do your current sales levels compare with SALES LEVELS@ during what you consider to be "normal"* times? @ of the main or most important product in terms of sales. |
| B. Current Costs Per Unit^ Q3. Looking back, how do your current COSTS PER UNIT^ compare with this time last year? o Down (< -1%) o About unchanged (-1% to 1%) o Up somewhat (1.1% to 3%) o Up moderately (3.1% to 6%) o Up significantly (6.1% to 10%) o Up very significantly (> 10%) ^ of the main or most important product in terms of sales. |
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C. Forward Looking Costs Per Unit$
$ of the main or most important product in terms of sales. |
Summary Data
Consolidated excel file containing all the previous months survey results - Bies - Results.
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In case you are interested in taking the survey, please send an email to bies@iima.ac.in
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