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Working Papers | 1991

Computer Based Itinerary Planning on Transportation Systems

G. Raghuram and Shobana R

Customers seek to know the best way of getting from an origin to a destination on a transportation system. Knowing the best way, i.e., itinerary planning, becomes all the more important when there are varied choices depending on the desired starting day and time at the origin or a required arrival day and time at the destination. Other considerations like cost, number of connections, etc., also play a role in the planning of an itinerary. A computer based system could enhance a customer's ability to make better choices in itinerary planning. No such system exists in either the Airlines, Railways, or Road Transport Corporations in India. This paper describes an interactive PC – based computer system developed by the authors, for itinerary planning on airlines (Indian Airlines and Vayudoot). The paper is supplemented by four annexures to facilitate further development covering system flow charts, structure of the database for maintenance and the implementation of the shortest and the k-shortest path algorithms. A users manual for the package is also provided.

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Working Papers | 1991

The Nash-Bargaining Solution for Public Sector Pricing Problems

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper e study some issues in positive second-best theory, specifically the theory of optimal pricing of private goods produced by public firms; that is, firms whose objective departs from profit maximization. The approach in this paper differs from earlier analysis of the so-called Ramsey pricing problem, in that we embed our problem in a bargaining theory framework.

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Working Papers | 1991

Crisil Rating: When Does AAA Mean B?

Ragunathan V and Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper an attempt has been made to assess the quality of credit rating function being performed by CRISIL, hitherto the sole credit rating agency in India. With this objective, the paper attempts to answer two important questions, namely: a) Are CRISIL's standards of rating comparable to international standards? And b) Are CRISIL's rating internally consistent? The questions are answered by assessing the companies rated AAA by CRISIL on the Standard and Poor's (S&P) standards. It turns out that the CRISIL's AAA companies rate variously from B to A on the S&P standards! This indicates that CRISIL's credit rating standards are not only much below international standards, they are also internally inconsistent. CRISIL's rating reports on its AAA companies are carefully analyzed to see if the ratios employed by it are significantly different from those of S&P's so that their AAA ratings may be consistent vis-a-vis their own ratios rather than by S&P's ratios. Even this does not turn out to be so. CRISIL's rating reports are also analyzed for any qualitative reasons for the award of AAA ratings. No strong reasons are found. Thus it is concluded that the discriminating ability of CRISIL's ratings vis-à-vis risk and hence their meaningfulness and usability are in general questionable. This conclusion assumes all the more significance in the light of interest rates being allowed to be determined by market forces, and the interest rates in turn being linked to credit-worthiness of the borrowers more than ever before. Thus, the paper strengthens the case for more credit rating agencies both in the private as well public sector for making the rating business competitive. It also provides a more objective framework for assessing the performance of credit rating agencies in general.

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Working Papers | 1991

Indian Oilmeals/Cakes Scenario, 1961-90

Rao V M

NCA (1976) has estimated that 5.75 million tonnes of concentrates are needed to bridge the gap between availability and requirement. On the other hand demand for milk is increasing year after year due to population growth, and raise in per capital income. Hence demand for livestock feeds, for economic milk production, will increase. This paper is an attempt to review consumption, production and trade related aspects of oil meals India. Cotton, groundnut, and rapeseed are major oil cakes in terms of consumption, and production, though there are side fluctuations in their relative shares. Estimated elasticity of price, and adult bouines one of the expected signs and stastically different from zero at 99% level. India is a major exporter of oil meals in the world and on an average 20% of production is being exported to developed economies of the world.

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Working Papers | 1991

Seed Industry in India Achievements and Prospects for growth

Gurdev Singh and Asokan S R

The paper enlists important policy measures taken to develop seed industry in India since 1947, progress made, and prospects for its growth. It reveals that the protectionist policy on seeds was abandoned in late eighties when seed industry was placed in Appendix I of the licensing policy. Subsequently under the New Seeds policy import of some seeds was placed under Open General Licensing while that of some others was permitted for two years subject to transfer of technology by the foreign company. Though impact of all such measures could not be seen immediately, the quality seed production has increased to 5.7 million quintals in 1989-90. The number of seed organizations in public and private sector has gone up to over 100. Seed multiplication alone has achieved a turn over of over Rs.3,000 million, about 50 pr cent of which was due to private sector. Few private companies have taken up seed research and are able to evolve more than 100 varieties/hybrids. However, still there is a big gap between production and requirement of quality seed. The requirement is estimated at 11.74 million quintals for 1989-90 and 22.19 million quintals for 2000 AD. The seed replacement has been far below the recommended rate for almost all major crops primarily due to non-availability of quality seeds of suitable varieties. Besides, there is good export demand for Indian seeds. Also to feed the teaming millions farm production must increase on continuous basis and productivity being the prime contributor to increasing production, seed quality must improve. Thus investment in research has good prospects and private sector must avail this opportunity to supplement public sector efforts. Biotechnology is a new hope as it ensures quicker multiplication and new strains. All this reflects on the bright prospects of growth for seed industry in India, the paper concludes.

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Working Papers | 1991

A Partial Characterization of the Uncapacitated Lot-Sizing Problem with Start-up Costs

Kalro A H

We consider the facial structure of the Uncapacitated Lot-sizing problem with start-up costs. We show that under mild assumptions on the objective function cost structure, adding valid inequalities described by Wolsey (1989) to the linear programming relaxation of the problem guarantees optimal integer solutions. For the special cases of a time horizon of 3 or less, we show that the inequalities completely describe the convex hull of feasible integer solutions. We also identify a new class of valid inequalities for the problem.

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Working Papers | 1991

Developing Small Holders Agriculture Through Changing Crop Composition

Naik Gopal and Babu K R

Small size of holdings of a large proportion of farmers is considered a major bottleneck in increasing the income of the people in rural areas. In India the proportion of small holders is increasing over time. Previous studies have suggested policies oriented towards non-prince factors such as increasing yield and changing crop composition for improving their incomes. This study examines how sericulture could be an ideal enterprise for small and marginal farmers in India. Analysis of primary data collected from 3 taluks of Karnataka state suggested that sericulture is far more attractive compared to competing crops in the respective areas in terms of net returns, cash flows and employment generation. Increasing silk production can also help in increasing foreign exchange earnings. Moreover, sericulture has other desirable features such as increased employment opportunities for women. Therefore, efforts towards popularising sericulture among small and marginal farmers could help in improving the living standards of these farmers.

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Working Papers | 1991

Mastershares: Market Prices Divorced From Fundamentals

Samir K. Barua and Jayanth R. Varma

The shares of a closed-end Mutual Fund may be regarded as derived securities because their value depends entirely on the prices of securities that comprise the fund portfolio. Therefore, the Net Asset Value (NAV) of these shares, after adjustments for winding up costs, can be regarded as their fundamental value. In an efficient market, the prices of these shares would move in line with the changes in their NAV. This paper examines the relationship between the price and the NAV of Mastershares, the first closed-end fund in India. The investigations revealed that there is excessive volatility in prices, not justified by the fluctuations in the NAV. The price also show a mean reverting behaviour. These observations are in line with recent works on irrationality in pricing of securities and emphasize the doubts raised about efficacy of standard test for market efficiency.

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Working Papers | 1991

Dilemmas of renewable Energy: The Case of the Solar Cooker Programme in Gujarat, India

Moorthy Ravi C

This article presents a set of measures for evaluating a social development programme such as the non-conventional energy programme. The specific case discussed and evaluated here is that of the solar cooker programme. Subsequently, the attempt is to identify key decision areas and raise some questions which may help focus better on the marketing problems confronting the programme.

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Working Papers | 1991

Protection to Domestic Industry: An Empirical Investigation

Aggarwal Ashok K

Recently there has been widespread debate on impact of protection on performance of domestic industry. It has been argued that protection to the Indian Industry during the last 40 years has resulted in poor performance of the industry in terms of productivity, technological development, low competitiveness because of poor quality of products at very high prices. Could we not have grown at the same rate as some of the Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) by following the more open policy towards foreign capital and exports rather than following import-substitution path? This empirical study attempts to answer some of the questions posed above. This study examines the extent of protection to the domestic industry for the period 1974-78 (1970s) and 1982-84 (1980s). International average unit values and domestic prices of the industry are used to find the implicit and effective protection. It also examines the impact of protection on relative performance by using three different performance parameters. To study the distortionary effects on production technology it examines the relationship between protection and physical capital intensity. The main findings of the study are: (i) that protection has increased in the 1980s as compared to 1970s (ii) there is no conclusive evidence about the impact of protection on the performance variables over the two periods (iii) poor performance of Indian exports could not be attributed to the poor price competitiveness of our exports (iv) there is no evidence of distortionary effects of protection on the production technology.

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