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Working Papers | 2019

Overestimation in the Growth Rates of National Income in Recent Years? – An Analyses Based on Extending GDP04-05 through Other Indicators of Output

Sebastian Morris and Tejshwi Kumari

Quarterly indices of output like those of Industrial Production, other measures of production like net sales, exports, of companies for which data is available, besides proxies like credit to the sector, and indices of price levels have been used to forward project the growth rates of GDP04-05, for the principal sectors of the National Income Accounts (NAS). These were then compared with the growth rates given by the new Gross Value Added (GVA11-12) at constant price measure. It is very highly probable that some sectors of the National Accounts Statistics (NAS) notably Manufacturing, and Trade, Transport, Storage, Hotels and Communication Sectors were overestimated, especially in periods when the output (economic activity) was slowing down. This questions the use of the new GVA series for macroeconomic (policy) actions, wherein more than extensiveness of coverage, the movements over time of the measure have to be reliable and accurate. This is especially so because manufacturing and its related sector-trade etc., are the core sectors which are responsive to changes in policy and to shocks (that could be countered), wherein there is deep overestimation. Some evening out of the overestimation is noticed over the upswing in the business cycle since 2017:2. However the demonetization which rudely reduced demand did not allow the "phase shifting" and "flattening" aspects, which the new GVA series possibly imposes to be examined in detail, although the same is suggested.

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Journal Articles | 2018

Reforming agricultural markets in India: A tale of two model Acts

Sukhpal Singh

Economic & Political Weekly

The union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare had prescribed a model Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act in 2003. The state-level adoption of the act has been tardy and varied in terms of both the magnitude and content of agricultural market reforms. Yet, the ministry under the current central government has come up with another model act, the Agricultural Produce and Livestock Marketing (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2017, supposedly an improvement over the 2003 act. Among other things, the provision that has grabbed much attention is the removal of contract farming from the APMC domain to a separate model act of Agricultural Produce and Livestock Contract Farming and Services (Promotion and Facilitation). Analysing these draft acts, the paper finds that both the model acts suffer from serious conceptual lacunae that have implications for their application and governance, and, consequently, for inclusive and sustainable agricultural development.

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Journal Articles | 2018

Using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker proximity measure for solving bilevel optimization problems

Ankur Sarin, Tharo Soun, and Kalyanmoy Deb

Swarm and Evolutionary Computation

A common technique to solve bilevel optimization problems is by reducing the problem to a single level and then solving it as a standard optimization problem. A number of single level reduction formulations exist, but one of the most common ways is to replace the lower level optimization problem with its Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions. Such a reduction strategy has been widely used in the classical optimization as well as the evolutionary computation literature. However, KKT conditions contain a set of non-linear equality constraints that are often found hard to satisfy. In this paper, we discuss a single level reduction of a bilevel problem using recently proposed relaxed KKT conditions. The conditions are relaxed; therefore, approximate, but the error in terms of distance from the true lower level KKT point is bounded. There is a proximity measure associated to the new KKT conditions, which gives an idea of the KKT error and distance from the optimum. We utilize this reduction method within an evolutionary algorithm to solve bilevel optimization problems. The proposed algorithm is compared against a number of recently proposed approaches. The idea is found to lead to significant computational savings, especially, in the lower level function evaluations. The idea is promising and might be useful for further developments on bilevel optimization both in the domain of classical as well as evolutionary optimization research.

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Journal Articles | 2018

Minimum wages in India: Current status and future prospects

Biju Varkkey and Rupa Korde

Policy in Focus

Journal Articles | 2018

Stakeholder orientation and market impact: Evidence from India

Arzi Adbi, Ajay Bhaskarabhatla, and Chirantan Chatterjee

Journal of Business Ethics

This study integrates insights from stakeholder theory and the literature on competitive dynamics and incumbent responses to entry. While research in economics and strategy has examined how market incumbents respond to new entrants, little is known about the heterogeneity in these responses to the entry of a stakeholder-oriented firm; our study addresses this research gap. Findings from a novel, longitudinal dataset of 206 granularly defined pharmaceutical markets in India suggest that stakeholder-oriented firm entry in these markets is associated with an impact on prices and product differentiation with heterogeneous responses from high-end and low-end incumbents. Specifically, entry by a stakeholder-oriented firm results in a reduction in prices and dosage sizes from high-end incumbents, whereas low-end incumbents respond in the opposite direction.

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Journal Articles | 2018

When the big one came: A natural experiment on demand shock and market structure in India's Influenza Vaccine markets

Arzi Adbi, Chirantan Chatterjee, Matej Drev, and Anant Mishra

Production and Operations Management

This study examines the relationship between exogenous demand shock and market structure in India's influenza vaccine markets. Using a novel dataset of detailed purchasing information for vaccines in India, and exploiting the 2009–10 global H1N1 pandemic as an exogenous demand shock, we provide evidence of heterogeneous responses to the shock by domestic and multinational vaccine manufacturers in the influenza vaccine market relative to our control group of all other vaccine markets. We find that such a shock results in a reversal of the market structure for influenza vaccines in India, with a decline in the market share of multinational vaccine manufacturers and significant gains in the market share of domestic vaccine manufacturers. This reversal of the market structure is driven by increased efforts at new product introduction among domestic vaccine manufacturers, the effects of which persist even after the pandemic has ended. Our results remain robust to the use of alternative controls, synthetic control method, coarsened exact matching method, and other relevant estimation methodologies. These results provide new evidence on the role of a pandemic-induced demand shock in the context of an emerging economy by creating differential incentives for domestic and multinational vaccine manufacturers to bring new products to market. We also conduct additional analysis to explore the impact of targeted policy instruments on the new product introduction efforts of domestic vaccine manufacturers. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings and offer insights into the role of policy on pandemic preparedness in emerging markets facing adverse welfare effects from pandemics.

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Journal Articles | 2018

All aboard the Metro rail? LTMRHL's campaign for stakeholder support

Asha Kaul and Vidhi Chaudhri

Asian Case Research Journal

On March 6, 2015 the Brand Ambassador campaign by L&T Metro Rail Hyderabad Ltd. (LTMRHL) had taken place for a little over two years. Launched in 2013 to bring about awareness and dispel negativity about the Metro Rail project, this campaign had succeeded in securing visibility and garnering support. The corporate communication team was now debating the feasibility of the ongoing campaign and exploring various options. Based on the current review, a decision had to be taken to continue or abandon the campaign post commercial operations scheduled in July 2017.

The campaign was launched in Hyderabad on January 8, 2013 through a press conference. Designed with the purpose of selecting brand ambassadors for the Hyderabad Metro Rail (HMR) project, it targeted the ‘common man’ rather than a celebrity. The choice of a common man was deliberate as the project required support from stakeholders who had become hostile due to varied political and economic reasons. Reaching out to and engaging with these stakeholders in an effort to garner support were the focal points of the campaign. The launch generated excitement and in the first week itself, there was a surge to register for the campaign. However, the intensity staggered post the felicitation ceremony on November 23, 2013. Queries related to the success and sustainability of the campaign were raised by multiple stakeholders.

A two-year review in 2015 revealed that although many of the initial problems had been overcome, and negativity considerably reduced, the campaign had only achieved partial success. Will the current strategy be the gateway to success once commercial operations began, mulled Mr. Sanjay Kapoor, General Manager & Head of Corporate Communications, PR & Advertising Business, LTMRHL.

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Journal Articles | 2018

How can mindfulness enhance moral reasoning? An examination using business school students

Ashish Pandey, Rajesh Chandwani, and Ajinkya Navare

Business Ethics: A European Review

Given the comprehensive influence of mindfulness on human thought and behavior, and the importance of moral reasoning in business decisions, we examine the role of mindfulness as an antecedent to moral reasoning through two studies. In Study 1, we propose and test a theoretically derived model that links mindfulness and moral reasoning, mediated by compassion and egocentric bias using a survey design. In Study 2, we examine whether mindfulness training enhances moral reasoning using an experimental design with graduate students of business management. The findings of Study 1 substantiate the positive association of mindfulness with moral reasoning. We found that this relationship is fully mediated by compassion and egocentric bias. The results of Study 2 suggest that mindfulness meditation training has a positive impact on individuals' states of mindfulness, compassion, and moral reasoning, and decreases egocentric bias. We relate the findings of the study with contemporary neurological research and discuss the theoretical, pedagogical, and managerial implications.

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Journal Articles | 2018

Stewardship value of income statement classification: An empirical examination

Avinash Arya and Neerav Nagar

Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance

This study investigates the use of earnings components in setting CEO compensation and explores how persistence and controllability affect it. The results indicate that compensation committees do accord differential treatment to earnings components based on their persistence and controllability. Among above the line items, income from continuing items, the most persistent item, also receives the most weight, followed by special items, which have smaller persistence. Furthermore, these weights vary across firms in different stages of life cycle in a manner that mirrors variations in their informativeness and persistence. Weights on special items also exhibit contextual sensitivity based on their type and frequency. Among below the line items, discontinued items, which are at least under partial control of the CEO, receive a positive weight. Except extraordinary items, which are largely uncontrollable, we find no evidence that CEOs are shielded from the income-decreasing effects of any of the earnings components.

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Journal Articles | 2018

Turning over a golden leaf? Global liquidity and emerging market central bank's demand for gold after the financial crisis

Balagopal Gopalakrishnan and Sanket Mohapatra

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money

The quantity of gold reserves held by central banks in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) has risen sharply in the years following the global financial crisis of 2008. EMDE central banks’ gold holdings rose in both absolute terms and as a share of GDP across the developing regions and in most of the EMDE countries, suggesting a pervasive phenomenon. Using a dynamic panel data model, we find that expansion of central bank balance sheets in the advanced economies and increase in global liquidity are robustly related to the post-crisis increase in EMDE gold reserves, after controlling for domestic factors and changes in the global risk environment. This finding is robust to different model specifications, inclusion of additional covariates, and alternative estimation methods. We argue that quantitative easing undertaken by central banks in the advanced economies resulted in a search for alternative safe assets such as gold, which may explain the continued accumulation of EMDE gold reserves even after the peak of the financial crisis.

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