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Working Papers | 1997

Factors Influencing the Perceived Priority of Tuberculosis in India

Deepti Bhatnagar

The objective of this study was to understand the priority attached to tuberculosis in India by the major stakeholders in the National Tuberculosis Programme, to explore the underlying factors, and to suggest illustrative steps to enhance the effectiveness of the programme delivery. Major stakeholders were broadly grouped into three categories: the programme providers (the entire government system involved in the design and delivery of the programme, starting with the health ministry at the central government to the health workers at the field level), the programme recipients (patients as well as community at large), and the tuberculosis watchdogs (including the not-for-profit organisations such as the Tuberculosis Association of India and Foundation for Research in Community Health, as well as the media). The perceived priorities of stakeholders were explored through a combination of approaches. Methodology included discussions with programme functionaries form the apex level to the grassroots level, structured and semi-structured interviews covering all the stakeholders, questionnaire surveys of priorities of government doctors and health workers, and the experiences of tuberculosis patients, perusal of relevant documents, research reports, and newspaper reports, etc. Our analysis showed an overall low priority for tuberculosis. It manifested itself in a variety of ways: from low plan allocations for tuberculosis among the communicable diseases, and frequent change of the senior-most functionary in the tuberculosis division at the central level, to a relatively-low importance attached by the government doctors, and competing priorities and pressures for the health workers at the field level. Patients' experiences reflected the fallout in terms of indifferent programme delivery. Perusal of the electronic and print media indicated that there was tremendous scope to use this powerful tool for awareness-building about tuberculosis among the larger community in general and for giving specific inputs and message of hope to people suffering from tuberculosis in particular. Our report concludes with suggestions and illustrative steps for enhancing the effectiveness of the Revised National Tuberculosis Programme in India.

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Working Papers | 1997

Macroeconomic Analysis of the Union Budget 1997-98

Dholakia Bakul H

The Union Budget for 1997-98 has been widely acclaimed as a historic budget. In view of the serious differences among different members of the coalition government on major economic issues ranging from the size of fiscal deficit to the level of administered prices & subsidies, the situation facing the Finance Minister called for both guts and confidence to formulate a reform & growth oriented budget. In a rare display of the initiative and the required guts, the Finance Minister acted decisively in favour of the top half of the country's population and in the process earned an overwhelmingly favourable public response to his budget proposals. An attempt has been made in this paper to present a broad macroeconomic analysis of the main proposals of the Union Budget 1997-98 and examine the likely impact of the budget proposals on Indian economy. An attempt has also been made to present the post-budget macroeconomic scenario for Indian economy for the year 1997-98.

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Working Papers | 1997

The Coming Restructuring Wave

Venkiteswaran N

Indian corporate sector is on the threshold of a major restructuring wave, with a new round of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures and demergers in the offing. This phase is likely to be qualitatively and quantitatively different from the earlier round in the first four years of economic reforms. This paper discusses some of the principal driving forces behind the new wave such as the continued low market valuation of a large number of companies, correction of managerial mistakes and cost pressures in several fragmented industries. This also examines the implications of recent regulatory changes for corporate restructuring in India.

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Working Papers | 1997

Investment Behaviour in Indian Agriculture: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

Vasant P. Gandhi and Mani Gyanendra

Investment behaviour is an important economic relation that has been difficult to determine in the context of developing economies. Yet, it is clearly recognized that investment is critical for sustained growth in the agriculture sector. There has been significant concern in India in the last 5 to 10 years about a reduction in the growth of agricultural investment. In this context, the present study seeks to examine the nature of investment behaviour from the 1950's to the early1990's using the theory of investment behaviour. It develop sa theoretical model which is then empirically estimated. The findings indicate substantial changes in investment in the post-1980 period. Government investment which was almost continuously rising before 1980/81 shows a decline which continues beyond 1986/87 on to 1992/93. Private investment, on the other hand, fluctuates substantially with some decline between 1980-81 to 1986/87, but after 1986/87 it starts rising and continues to rise till 1992/93. Model results indicate a considerable change in the investment behaviour between the 1952-1980 period and 1980-1992 periods. For instance, the relatively strong role of output prices in raising private investment in the earlier period is not validated in the later period. The strong positive impact of government investment on private validated in the later period. The strong positive impact of government investment on private investment in the earlier period turns empirically adverse in the later period, possibly, in part, due to declining public investment and rising private investment. The results are subject to data constraints and modelling limitations, and issues raised certainly require further investigation.

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Working Papers | 1997

Growth and Economics of Pesticide Use in India: Overview - Analysis of the Environment, Patterns and Market Potential

Vasant P. Gandhi

The pesticide industry is the most dynamic agricultural input industry in India, being substantially in private hands. Yet the pesticide use levels in India are among the lowest in the world. This paper presents an overview-analysis of the pesticide scenario in India. It develops a framework of the market environment within which the growth of pesticide use takes place in developing countries. It then uses this framework to study the growth and patterns of pesticide use in India. It finds that pesticide use in India is highly concentrated by crop and geographic area, and is therefore showing declining growth rates. A major reason appears to be very limited market development efforts by the firms leading to poor conversion of a large potential into effective demand. Output markets/prices, input prices, high yielding varieties and wage rates play important roles in determining use. However, many non-price factors are also very important. Pesticides are also seen as an insurance by the farmers and therefore higher than optimum use is frequently reported. The new economic environment in India will offer ample opportunities for growth. However, the industry will need to look at the market environment more comprehensively and will need to play a proactive role in market development.

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Working Papers | 1997

Some Properties of Solutions for two Dimensional Choice Problems Reconsidered

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper, we take up the outstanding problem of axiomatically characterizing what we have referred to in the paper as the additive choice function on the classical domain for choice problems. Apart from an impossibility result for the additive choice function, there is an axiomatic characterization, which as a by-product provides a counter example to a conjecture for the egalitarian choice function. In an appendix, we provide a proof of an axiomatic characterization of the egalitarian choice function using a superadditivity axiom. Further we show several non-rationalizability properties of utilitarian consistent solutions. In this paper, we also provide proofs of axiomatic characterizations of the family of non-symmetric Nash choice functions and the family of weighted hierarchies of choice functions. Our conclusion is that earlier axiomatizations are essentially preserved on the classical domain for choice problems. The proofs are significant in being non-trivial and very dissimilar to existing proofs on other domains.

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Working Papers | 1997

Why Not Push for 9% Growth?

Sebastian Morris

More than political constraints, an adherence to orthodoxy on the part of policy makers may have been responsible for the economy operating at well below the growth rate that it is capable of achieving. Part of the problem is orthodoxy's (limited) understanding of the East Asian trade strategy, which was as far from laissez faire as can be imagined. A purposeful and massive under valuation of their currency was part of the strategy, which while making the ratio of importables to exportables close to their international prices, provided for simultaneous export growth and import substitution, something not possible in orthodoxy's standard work horse-the 2x2x2 model of international trade. Simultaneous import substitution and export production is theoretically possible for economies with idle resources, with the introduction of third non-traded goods corrected would bring exports and growth itself tumbling down. An examination of causal links among macroeconomic variables would indicate that exports, agriculture and public sector GDP are most "exogenous". Private sector GDP is strongly influenced by exports and agriculture. The prospect for a sustained growth at 9% or more is real. It is well below the point at inflation can be expected to rise. The need of the hour is expenditure (investment) expansion. The current budget in providing for a tax cut for industry, has done the right thing. But that in itself would not be enough. For structural and other reasons private investment would not show the same bouncy in the years to come that it shown in the past. Further increases in the share of private investment would have to wait many clarifications of legal and other (such as regulatory) tangles. This raises the scope for renewal of public investments in areas like power, with even deficit financing. If the agricultural constraint too can be relaxed via institutional reform, and a disequilibrium exchange rate strategy is in place the 9% may itself be an underestimate of the rate of growth the economy is capable of. Of course the present orthodoxy of the policy makers and the RBI would have to go.

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Working Papers | 1997

Why are we Junking this Engine of Growth?

Sebastian Morris

Over the last year and a half, the real value of the rupee has been going up. Neither the government in its budget or otherwise, nor the RBI, seems to be concerned about the deleterious effects of the same on export growth. Both government and the RBI plan to strive for capital account convertibility, even at the cost of export growth and growth in general. The argument that capital flight takes place anyway, so that capital convertibility should not affect it, is fallacious. Growth is the key to surplus retention, and the recognition of significant capital flight from India would mean that policies would have to be directed not only to attracting capital from abroad (FDI, portfolio investments) but also for surplus retention. Only high growth can ensure that the incoming capital does not merely lead to displacement of domestic surpluses (capital flight) in investment, but adds to domestic savings to raise the overall level of savings and investment. Expansion of exports especially of those that arise in small firms, is a near perfect answer to raising the overall growth rate. A significant depreciation of the currency, besides enhanced credit through a major reform of the banking sector would be necessary. On structural considerations, there is no getting away from exports' inevitable role as the engine for India's industrial transformation.

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Working Papers | 1997

The Supporting Line Property and the Additive Choice Function for Two Dimensional Choice Problem

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper, we provide an axiomatic characterization of the additive choice function using the additivity property due to Myerson (1981). It is seen that along with Pareto Optimality, symmetry, and a supporting line property the additivity axiom uniquely characterizes the additive choice function. This characterization appears to be a shade more elegant and less reliant on the definition of the additive choice function, than the one available in Lahiri (1997a). It is easy to see that the additive choice function as defined in this paper, does not satisfy Nash's Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives Assumption. The latter is a property required for a choice function to be representable by an utility function i.e. the chosen point is to be the unique maximizer of an utility function. This brings us to the question of when a choice function is representable. This is the question we take up in an appendix to the paper.

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Working Papers | 1997

Linking Telecom Technologies: Complementarities, Capabilities and Policies

Rakesh Basant and Pankaj Chandra

This paper is a preliminary exploration to develop a methodology for assessing the technological capabilities and needs of the telecommunications sector in India. It makes a case for strategic policy interventions to build adequate domestic capabilities in this crucial sector with significant externalities. We develop a model for mapping technological capabilities through the concept of a technology supply chain and establish the role of complementary assets (like manufacturing within and outside the sector) in developing and appropriating technologies. It is argued that policy initiatives need to be based on these considerations. A brief review of Asian experiences also supports this point of view.

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