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Working Papers | 1986

Demand Forecasts for Cultural and Industrial Papers in India: Some Policy Implications

Gupta Tirath

Number of integrated pulp and paper mills in India increased from 17 in the early 1950s to 250 in 1985, and the production capacity rose from 137,000 tonnes to 2,350,000 tonnes. The capacity utilization, however, declined continually from 90 per cent during 1951-56 to 58 per cent during 1980-85. This is attributed to a number of factors chief among which are the predominant role of ambitions and presumptions, and lack of distinction between need and demand in the planning process. Besides the official documents, an assessment of the studies to forecast the demand for paper on the basis of i) changes in income, ii) changes in incomes, expenditure on education, index of industrial production, etc., and iii) limited end use surveys; also indicated that there has been one way difference between the demand forecasts and observated consumption levels during 1960-85, and the former were higher than the latter by 7 ato 97 per cent. The variations within the projected demand levels for any year have been even more pronounced. Some of the reasons for these variations have been the differences in i) type of association assumed between explanatory and dependent variables, ii) type of data used in the studies, iii) assumed growth rate for the explanatory variables, iv) the number of explanatory variables included in the models, v) subjective judgements of the analysts and users of the results, etc. The last of these has been facilitated by non-availability of adequate or accurate data, and inadequate modelling work such that the demand forecasts have not been approached in a systems framework. The forecasts have not served as appropriate tools for production planning and policy making this may be achieved if adequate and reliable data on consumer profile are collected and processed to enlighten the analysts on how much of different types of paper and paperboards are consumed by different socio-economic groups for different purposes. This may be the best time to generate the data as the nations need not plan for additional production capacity for at least the next 5 years.

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Working Papers | 1986

Prediction of Son Performance in Easy through Difficult Exams by Indian Parents

Singh Ramadhar and Mehta Mridula

Prediction of exam performance from information about motivation and ability of students by Indian subjects always supported an adding-type rule. As this rule implies that motivation is equally effective with persons of low through high ability, it may be regarded as reflective of an idealistic philosophy. The present research tested the hypothesis that a multiplying-type rule which implies that motivation is more effective with persons of high than of low ability may be used by Indian subjects if the situation demands realistic estimates. Twenty-four couples expressed expectations from their only-son in easy through difficult exams to school principal confidentially. Predictions by mothers obeyed the multiplying-type rule; those by fathers obeyed the adding-type rule. Exam difficulty changed pattern in father's judgments but not in mother's judgments. However, parents held a similar belief: Effectiveness of motivation increases with sons of high ability but decreases with sons of low ability as difficulty of exam increases. Of the three possible explanations for the effects of exam difficulty, changes in weight of information seemed to be the most parsimonious.

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Working Papers | 1986

Organization of the Future: A Strategic Organization Perspective

Khandwalla P N

In the light of research on organizational design, the paper outlines an effective design for the strategic organizations of developing societies. Strategic organizations are defined as those organizations with the mission of further growth and development of the sectors they are serving. The data on 31 leading Indian central public sector enterprises indicates that the postulated effective organizational design for Third World strategic organizations is feasible. The data on 5 strategic Indian organizations indicates that rapid, sometimes spectacular improvement in productivity and other indicators of performance accompany management changes towards the design postulated to be effective for strategic organizations.

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Working Papers | 1986

A Goal Programming Model for Selection of Integrated Rural Energy Sytems

P. R. Shukla and Moulik T K

This paper presents a goal programming model for selection of Integrated Rural Energy System (IRES). The decisions involve (i) selection of a mix of energy generating systems and (ii) allocation of energy from these to different end-uses. These decisions are made considering several goals such as budget requirements, cost minimization, energy demand and supply, fuel-wood conservation etc. A pre-emptive priority structure for goal achievement is considered. The formulation thus esults in a mixed integer linear goal programming (MILGP) model.

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Working Papers | 1986

Comparative Evaluation of Operating Performances of KVIC and Janata Models of Biogas Plants in India

Moulik T K and P. R. Shukla

This paper gives a comparative evaluation of operating performance of KVIC and Janata model biogas plants in India. The comparative analysis is based on the extensive field survey of KVIC and Janata model plants in five States in India. Comparison is based on cost, operating problems, usage of gas, maintenance, feed stock types etc. Role of implementation agencies in success of the biogas plant installation is also studied.

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Working Papers | 1986

Determinants of Error Variance in Individual Child Analyses for Studying Integrational Capacity

Singh Ramadhar

In research on information integration by children, integrational capacity of a child is ascertained by the number of statistically significant main effects in analysis of variance for the child. Such an approach has an obvious bias, for the error variance may be bigger for younger but smaller for older children. Analyses of error variance from individual child analyses of four previous experiments on prediction of performance yielded mixed results. The mean error term sometimes decreased, sometimes increased, and sometimes remained the same over increasing age of children. The number of cues in the integration task and the nature of judgment seemed to be better predictors of error variance than the age of children. It seems that a study of integrational capacity must as a rule check on response variability along with the number of statistically significant main effects over ages.

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Working Papers | 1986

Strategies of Developing Human Resources: An Analysis of Experiences from Fourteen Organizations

T. V. Rao

HRD function has got a good deal of attention in the recent past and is continuing to get more. The instruments of HRD are many. The HRD instruments should lead to the generation of HRD processes like role clarity, performance planning, development climate, risk-taking, dynamism, etc in employees. Such HRD process should result in more competent, satisfied and committed people that would make the organization grow by contributing their best to it. Such HRD outcomes influence the organizational effectiveness. A model explaining the linkages between HRD instruments, processes, outcomes and organizational effectiveness is presented. Experiences of seven public sector and seven private sector organizations (BEMK, BHEL, Bank of Baroda, Crompton Greaves, Jyoti, Indian Oil Cproration, L&T, L&T-ECC, SAIL, State Bank of India, State Bank of Patiala, Sundaram Fasteners, TVS Iyengar & Sons and Voltas) were analysed against this model, The analysis suggests that new HRD departments, performance appraisals, role analysis and OD exercises have been the most frequently used HRD instruments. Using external consultants as well as internal task forces consisting of line managers, company-wide education of line managers and top managements' participation in the change process are most commonly observed in these organizations. However, very little evidence is available about the impact of the HRD instruments in terms of developing a HRD culture and HRD outcomes. It is argued that in the absence of a demonstration of such a linkage HRD becomes a matter of philosophy and faith. HRD departments have a complex role to play as even theoretically the links between HRD and organizational effectiveness are not easily demonstrable. HRD departments and top management should recognize this and accordingly plan their future strategies.

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Working Papers | 1986

National Cost of television in India in 2000 A.D. : Socio-Economic and Political Implications and Issues

Srivastava Uma Kant

The rapid expansion of TV coverage has opened up possibilities of this medium to be used as a developmental communication tool. The analysis in this paper has indicated that only 12 per cent of the population residing in the areas with the reach of the TV signals can only watch the TV at present. The simulation exercise reported in this paper indicates that unless some major policy interventions are made, only 40 per cent of people would have access to TV programmes even in the year 2000 A.D. The profile of these viewers indicates that bulk of these viewers would be from the urban area and top three brackets of consumption expenditure in rural area. The paper has discussed some of the socio-economic and political implications of this profile of viewership. This calls for a multi-pronged policy thrust in remedying the situation of skewed access to TV in India, widening the knowledge gap between 'haves' and 'have-nots'. This paper has suggested three such areas policy of interventions. The implementation of suggested interventions would also have implication for production planning, fiscal measures and support of village panchayats and local bodies and school systems. These aspects need to be taken into account in communication planning for the year 2000 A.D.

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Working Papers | 1986

The Bases of Involvement in Work and Family Contexts

Kanungo R N and Misra Sasi B

The paper reports on a bi-national study of involvement in work and family contexts. Using heterogeneous samples of managerial personnel in India and Canada, the study explored the differential need patterns aroused in work and family contexts, the nature of relationship between work and family contexts, and the relationship between perceived need satisfaction potential of the context and involvement in that context. Results reveal that in the work context, growth needs are perceived to be most important, affiliative needs next, and subsistence needs least important. In the family context on the contrary, affiliative needs are perceived to be most important, subsistence needs next, and growth needs least important. With respect to involvement, the relationship between work and family contexts was found to be weak. This relationship was found to be influenced by the need satisfaction potential of respective contexts. The cross-national generalizability and usefulness of several sociological and psychological approaches for research on involvement in multilife-spheres are discussed.

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Working Papers | 1986

Cultural, Developmental, and Task Differences in Prediction of Performace: An Information Integration Analysis

Srivastava Prabha and Singh Ramadhar

Past research showed that Indian children average information about motivation and ability in prediction of performance. However, a multiplying-type rule develops from an adding-type rule in American children. The present research tested the hypothesis that integration rule depends upon age and culture of children and nature of task. Consistent with the hypothesis, Experiment 1 (n = 96) obtained evidence for no difference between children of fourth and eighth grades in prediction of performance in puzzle contest but for development of an adding-type rule from a multiplying-type rule in prediction of performance in singing contest. As the latter finding was surprising, Experiment 2 (n = 144) studied kindergarten through eleventh grade children. Results indicated that a multiplying-type rule evolves out of an adding-type rule but gets replaced by the adding-type rule during sixth and seventh grades. Of the three interpretations, namely, changes in weight of information, changes in integration rule, and changes in response reproduction processes, of the age differences, the first one seemed to be the most parsimonious.

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