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Working Papers | 1999

Rupee-Dollar Option Pricing and Risk Measurement: Jump Processes, Changing Volatility and Kurtosis Shifts

Jayanth R. Varma

Exchange rate movements in the Indian rupee (and many other emerging market currencies) are characterised by long periods of placidity punctuated by abrupt and sharp changes. Many, but by no means all, of these sharp changes are currency depreciations. This paper shows that econometric models of changing volatility like Generalised AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) with non normal residuals which perform quite well in other financial markets fail quite miserably in the case of the INR-USD process because they do not allow for such jumps in the exchange rate. The empirical results very convincingly demonstrate the need to model the exchange rate process as a mixed jump-diffusion (or normal mixture) process. Equally importantly, the empirical results provide strong evidence that the jump probabilities are not constant over time. From a statistical point of view, changes in the jump probabilities induce large shifts in the kurtosis of the process. The failure of GARCH processes arises because they allow for changes in volatility but not for changes in kurtosis. The time varying mixture models are able to accommodate regime shifts by allowing both volatility and kurtosis (not to mention skewness) to change. This also shows that the periods of calm in the exchange rate are extremely deceptive; in these periods, the variance of rate changes is quite low, but the kurtosis is so high (in the triple digit range) that the probability of large rate changes is non trivial. The empirical results also show that the Black-Scholes-Garman-Kohlhagen model for valuation of currency options is quite inappropriate for valuing rupee-dollar options and that the Merton jump-diffusion model is the model of choice for this purpose.

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Working Papers | 1999

Extended Partial Orders: A Note

Lahiri Somdeb

The purpose of this paper is to establish the equivalence of two axioms one of which appear in Nehring [1997] and the other in Nehring and Puppe [1999]. The one in Nehring and Puppe [1999] is due to Aizerman and Malishevski [1981]. We there by improve the existing characterisation of choice functions rationalized by extended partial orders. In appendix to this paper we provide a proof of a related statement appearing in Nehring [1997]. This paper makes extensive use of the rather elegant device known as finite mathematical induction.

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Working Papers | 1999

Effectiveness of Reflective Insulation in Box Solar Cooker

Girja Sharan

In this paper, we present comparative performance of box solar cooker fitted with reflective insulation and the cooker with the usual glasswool insulation. It is found that reflective insulation made of Alseal with one air space of 25 mm is as effective as glasswool of 50 mm thickness. Increasing the number of air spaces to two does improve the performance, but only marginally. Reflective insulation promises to be an effective substitute for glasswool in cookers. It will permit appreciable reduction in weight and bulk of existing cookers.

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Working Papers | 1999

Sufficient Condition for the Backward Bending Supply Curve

Ravindra H. Dholakia

In several cases where self-consumption of the production by the proucer-cum-consumer is important, public policy debates often consider inter alia the issue of backward bending supply curve of the product. In the present paper, the sufficient condition for obtaining an individual's backward bending supply curve is examined. It is argued that although theoretically the possibility of an individual's supply curve bending backward cannot be ruled out, in practice, it is extremely difficult to find such cases. The market supply curve is even less likely to be backward bending. The policy makers, therefore, need not get concerned about such hypothetical possibilities.

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Working Papers | 1999

Comparative Ranking of Quality of Life in Four Indian Cities

Ingawale Yashada and Prem Pangotra

Cities are often compared with one another using a variety of indicators which measure the physical, economic and social well being of the residents. Such comparisons are used to assign rankings such as "best places to live" or "best places to do business" etc. Frequently these comparisons are based on subjective opinions of individuals relying on minimal facts. Often the rankings cover cities which differ so widely in terms of population, level of economic development and the social and political institutions, that these comparisons are of rather limited use. This study, covering four Indian cities (Ahmedabad, Pune, Hyderbad, Bangalore) is an attempt to develop the conceptual and methodological framework for comparing the quality of life in urban centres.

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Working Papers | 1999

HACCP: A Quest for Quality as a Competitive Strategy for Agribusiness

Satish Y. Deodhar

While consumption of food gives material pleasure and a healthy life, contaminated food can be dangerous to health. Therefore, quality of food is very important. Even from the producers point of view, selling high quality food can be viewed as a competitive strategy to overcome competition. With the recent agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, World Trade Organization (WTO) has made it mandatory for all member states to follow international food standards guidelines in the sphere of foreign trade. An important element of these guidelines is the compliance with Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP), a management system for food safety. Indian firms will have to adopt these guidelines, else they will have to face non-trade-barriers in the export market. In this paper, I try to give a comprehensive treatment to HACCP and related food safety issues. I present the historical development of the system, give a theoretical background, and describe the actual procedure for implementing HACCP. It is hoped that food processing industry takes a lead in developing HACCP plans for the diverse range of domestic food products. This has a potential not only to improve food quality but also to give Indian firms a competitive advantage over others both in the domestic and export market.

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Working Papers | 1999

Comparison of Vastrapur Cartons with Conventional Wood Carton Based on Laboratory Tests

Sreenivas P, Srivastava S M, Dave Umang, and Girja Sharan

Three different CFB cartons were designed. Prototypes were tested for compression, vibration and drop. The results are presented and discussed.

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Working Papers | 1999

Axiomatic Characterizations of the CEA Solution for Rationing Problems

Lahiri Somdeb

Situations abound in the real world, where aggregate demand for a commodity exceeds aggregate supply. When such situations of excess demand occur, what is required is some kind of rationing. The literature on rationing problems has an interesting origin in the Babylonian Talmud. The purpose of this paper is to characterize axiomatically and analyze the constrained equal award solution for rationing problems.

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Working Papers | 1999

Quasitransitive Rational Choice

Lahiri Somdeb

We consider a finite universal set of alternatives and the set of all feasible sets are simply the set of all non-empty subsets of this universal set. A choice function assigns to each feasible set a non-empty subset of it. An interesting problem in such a context is to explore the possibility of the choice function coinciding with the best elements with respect to a binary relation. This is precisely the problem of rational choice theory. There is a large literature today on this topic. In this paper, we propose three new axioms which are used to fully characterize all choice functions which are rationalized by quasi-transitive, semi-transitive and a third kind of 'almost' transitive (:the property is called intervality in the literature) binary relations. These 'almost' transitive (:but not exactly so!) binary relations, which are now quite popular in the literature (:see Yu [1985]), have the rather interesting feature of revealing intransitive indifference for single valued choice functions. This phenomena has been dealt with rather elegantly by Kim [1987]. Our purpose, is to shed new light on the problem in the absence of the single-valuedness assumption. We, propose axiomatic characterizations which are minimal. Several examples are provided, to show that the assumptions we use are logically independent. While characterizing choice functions which coincide with the best elements with respect to a binary relation satisfying intervality, we invoke a property due to Fishburn [1971],which we refer to in the paper as Fishburn's Intervality Axiom. In Aizerman and Aleskerov [1995], can be found an axiom called Functional Acyclicity, which generalizes Fishburn's Intervality Axiom. It is correctly claimed in Aizerman and Aleskerov[1995], that satisfaction of Functional Acyclicity is equivalent to the existence of two real valued functions, one with domain being the finite universal set and the other with domain being the set of all finite subsets of the universal set, such that given a feasible set, only those alternatives are chosen whose value corresponding to the first function is at-least as much as the value assigned to the feasible set by the second function. Such choice functions are called threshold rationalizable. In a final section to the paper, we provide a correct proof of this result, in view of obvious logical discrepencies in the proof available in Aixerman and Aleskerov [1995]

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Working Papers | 1999

Structural Design for Greenhouse at Bhujodi-2

Pilare Vasant R and Girja Sharan

This write up contains design computations for selection of structural members for a greenhouse to be installed at Bhujodi. Straight wall gable roof form was selected. Wind load estimates made for wind angle 0 degree and 90 degree on air tight structure. Analysis was also carried out for left wall open. Effect of wind on the structure will be more serve when it is blowing at 0 degree. If the greenhouse happens to be open during high wind, the possibility of damage is increased. The steel requirement of structure in the present analysis is slightly high (15 kg/m2). Conventionally it should not exceed 10kg/ m2.

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