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Working Papers | 2004

Examination of the Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission in India: Results from Response of Commercial Banks' Balance Sheet to a Monetary Policy Shock

Vineet Virmani

In this study I present some evidence on the credit channel of monetary transmission in India. Using the set up of Bernanke and Blinder (1992) it is found that loans, investments and deposits of commercial banking system respond significantly to a monetary policy shock. Results to a positive shock to monetary base are as expected. Investments respond almost immediately and then taper whereas deposits permanently settle at a higher level. Loans respond more slowly and are seen to move contemporaneously with output after a lag of 8-12 months.

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Working Papers | 2004

A Re-look at the Long-Run Stability of the Money Multiplier in India

Vineet Virmani

Results on long-run stability of M1 and M3 money multipliers in India are presented after the BoP crisis. Allowing for in-sample regime switching it is found that M3 money multiplier can be characterized by a one-time regime shift around the beginning of 1997, the time when money markets reform first begun in a big way, with issuance of ad hoc 14-day on tap T-Bills giving way to Ways and Means Advances. Results on the stability of M1 multiplier are less clear and relationship, if it exists, is statistically weak. Although evidence from CUSUM-SQ tests and recent (more powerful) unit root tests suggests that M1 and adjusted monetary base are cointegrated.

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Working Papers | 2004

A Finite Horizon Inventory Model: An Operational Framework

N. Ravichandran

We present a simulation based decision support system to decide the inventory ordering policy in the context of a single commodity, multi pack, and finite horizon situation. The multiple objectives include (a) Minimizing the end of the season inventory, (b) Maximizing the operating profit, (c) Minimizing the peak working capital requirements during the season. Stochastic demand and positive lead time add to the complexity of the problem context. In addition multiple partners in the supply chain with distinct and conflicting set of objectives necessitate the need for a formal approach. The motivation for this model is based on a real life situation. The model addresses the decision choices faced by the distributor in a specific logistics chain. In this chain, a typical distributor has to balance between the stochastic nature of the demand and the attractive nature of financial incentives (order quantity based) proposed by the manufacturer. The problem can be formulated as a multi-period dynamic programming problem with stochastic demand with an objective to optimize the expected operating profit, subject to specific constraints on working capital requirement, service level, order fill rate and end of the season inventory. Such a formulation is hard to solve and does not lend itself to analyze several ordering policies. Based on simulation experiments, we propose an ordering policy which optimizes the overall objectives of supply chain partners and hence demonstrated the possibility of jointly managing the uncertain demand by supply chain partners. The model is simple and easy to use. It is implemented by using spreadsheet. It provides adequate flexibility to conduct what-if analysis. The model has a potential to be useful in a wide range of situations.

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Working Papers | 2004

Using Transaction Utility Approach for Retail Format Decision

Piyush Kumar Sinha

Transaction Utility theory was propounded by Thaler to explain that the value derived by a customer from an exchange consists of two drivers: Acquisition Utilities and Transaction utilities. Acquisition utility represents the economic gain or loss from the transaction. Where as transaction utility is associated with purchase or (sale) and represents the pleasure (or displeasure) of the financial deal per se and is a function of the difference between the selling price and the reference price. Choice of a format has been studied from several dimensions including the cost and effort as well as the non-monetary values. However, the studies that present the complete picture and combine the aspects of the tangible as well as intangible values derived out of the shopping process are limited. Most of the studies, all of them from the developed economies, have focussed on the selection of a store. They represent a scenario where formats have stabilised. However, in Indian scenario formats have been found to be influencing the choice of store as well as orientation of the shoppers. Also, retailers are experimenting with alternate format with differing success rates. The author has also not found a study that has applied this theory. It is felt that the Transactional Utility Theory may provide a suitable approach for making format decisions.

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Working Papers | 2004

Strategies for Improving Indian Railways' Market Share of Port Based Coal Traffic: A Diagnostic Study

Kapshe Sanjeevan, Dixit K L, Sanjay Verma, and G. Raghuram

India is a vast country. After its independence in 1947, it steadily lost its position in international trade. With the beginning of economic liberalization in 1991, it has taken new initiatives in integrating itself with the world economy. Import restrictions have been removed for many commodities. One of the major impacts of liberalization has been on infrastructure: railways, roadways, ports and airports. Significant changes have also taken place in the composition of imported and exported commodities. Due to these changes, new challenges are being faced on the infrastructure front. One of the challenges is to rectify the mismatch of available infrastructure at ports where a modal change of commodities that are either imported or exported takes place. This paper examines such issues with a specific focus on improving infrastructure required for integration of railways and ports. This is achieved by focusing on coal which is a commodity that (i) brings significant revenues to Indian Railways, and (ii) is witnessing increasing imports. In this diagnostic study, we discuss the problems faced by Indian Railways and identify ways to increase its market share of coal movement between ports and the hinterland.

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Working Papers | 2004

Quest for Aviation Growth

Singh J P

Based on a review of the Airlines Alliances in various parts of the world, the paper comments on the choices before India. It develops the basic contours of strategy for growth of Indian Aviation and notes the role of the government in this context. It suggests a step-wise approach starting with streamlining the domestic aviation scenario, enlarging the market size by treating air travel as an alternative mode rather than as something exclusive for the corporate sector. It also suggests need for adding capacity, creating openness and cooperation among the domestic players in dealing with the international competition. It further recommends creation of maintenance and transit hubs to carve a share of the international aviation business. Finally, it recommends a gradual step-wise offer of equity partnership to preferred partners in the aeroplane and aviation equipment manufacturing industry.

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Working Papers | 2004

Roadmap for Logistics Excellence: Need to Break the Unholy Equilibrium

G. Raghuram and Shah Janath

This white paper attempts to provide a roadmap for India to move towards logistics excellence. Apart from raising issues that are currently relevant, it also draws from the issues that were raised in the previous three logistics summits and continue to be relevant today. As a departure from the earlier summits, it was felt that some of the issues could be presented even prior to the summit, to enable discussions and prioritization during the summit. The paper begins with an assessment of the overall performance of logistics in India, followed by a framework of an "unholy equilibrium" that seeks to explain where we are and why, and then provides actor wise action agenda as the roadmap towards logistics excellence.

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Working Papers | 2004

Determinants of Export Performance of Indian Firms – A Strategic Perspective

Ravindra H. Dholakia and Kapur Deepak

Macroeconomic policy reforms initiated in India since 1991 have brought about a significant improvement in the export performance of Indian firms. This paper examines the export performance of firms with the help of balance sheet data of 557 firms for the years 1980-81 to 1995-96. Applying panel Tobit model, it explains the improved export performance through changes in various firm level variables as well as economic environmental factors derived from existing literature on experiences of different countries. The paper also draws certain strategic and policy implications likely to be relevant for emerging economies from its findings on India.

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Working Papers | 2004

Union Budget 2004-05 and the Health Sector

Bhat Ramesh and Saha Somen

The Union Budget 2004-05 of Government of India in some way marks a deviation from its preceding budgets in terms of its specific focus on social sector. The budget document is basic policy paper of the government and in some sense provides a mirror of government's priorities. However, one basic question remains how to translate these policies into implementable plans and how to make sure that the government is able to deliver the planned development. Many times we focus on priorities and policies without giving due consideration to ground level realities and the policy pronouncements remain rhetoric. In some ways the recent budget has done the same with the health sector. There is probably lack of clarity on issues the health sector is facing. We aim at addressing some of these issues in context of health sector and describe how this year's budget has missed the focus.

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Working Papers | 2004

Permutation Flowshop Scheduling with Earliness and Tardiness Penalties

Tirupati Devanath, Peeyush Mehta, and Pankaj Chandra

We address the permutation flowshop scheduling problem with earliness and tardiness penalties (E/T) and common due date of jobs. Large number of process and discrete parts industries follow flowshop type of production process. There are very few results reported for multi-machine E/T scheduling problems. We show that the problem can be sub-divided into three groups- one, where the due date is such that all jobs are necessarily tardy; the second, where the due date is such that it is not tight enough to act as a constraint on scheduling decision; and the third is a group of problems where the due date is in between the above two. We develop analytical results and heuristics for problems arising in each of these three classes. Computational results of the heuristics are reported. Most of the problems in this research are addressed for the first time in the literature. For problems with existing heuristics, the heuristic solution is found to perform better than the existing results.

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