Working Papers

Covid-19 Crisis, Pandemic Resilience and Linkages to Land: An Exposition

Choudhury, Pranab R.; Ghosh, Ranjan K.; Sindhi, Sumita
Title : Covid-19 Crisis, Pandemic Resilience and Linkages to Land: An Exposition
Authors : Choudhury, Pranab R.; Ghosh, Ranjan K.; Sindhi, Sumita
Publication Date : 08-May-2020
Year : 2020
Publication Code : WP 2020-05-01
Abstract : For a COVID-19 like pandemic, the Achilles heel is an unsuspecting villain-rapid and global land use changes. The way governments, businesses and communities see, relate to and use land, not only influences the outbreak but also determines their impact on humanity and development. Drawing upon empirical evidences from epidemiology and land governance, this article argues why the current situation implores the need to focus on the interaction between land use and global diseases. Apart from dwelling on causal links, we discuss the externalities that industrial, urban and rural development in India are poised to face because of the pandemic\'s potential impact on land, biodiversity and wildlife habitat, property rights and housing. We also underline reform options for policy and practice, that must be discussed and acted upon.
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Merger control for IRPs: Do acquisitions of distressed firms warrant competition scrutiny?

Ram Mohan, M.P.; Raj, Vishakha
Title : Merger control for IRPs: Do acquisitions of distressed firms warrant competition scrutiny?
Authors : Ram Mohan, M.P.; Raj, Vishakha
Publication Date : 08-May-2020
Year : 2020
Publication Code : WP 2020-05-02
Abstract : In July 2019, the Competition Law Review Committee Report had recommended that Insolvency Resolution Plans (IRP) which result in combinations should be green-channelled. This would mean that IRP combinations would be automatically approved without any merger scrutiny. The theoretical basis of this recommendation is the ‘failing firm defence\' which allows parties to enter into mergers if they show that the exit of a firm from the market will be more harmful to competition than the merger. This paper assesses the advisability of green-channelling IRPs through the lens of competition law. It examines the IRPs which have been scrutinised by the CCI and examines whether they are treated differently from other mergers. We use the European Union as a point of comparison to describe how the failing firm defence is being implemented and to show that there can be anticompetitive effects to green-channelling IRPs without a full competition assessment. We conclude that while the failure of a firm is an important consideration when assessing mergers, it cannot be the sole determinant of their desirability.
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Further Estimations of the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version 2 dt. April 10, 2020)

Morris, Sebastian
Title : Further Estimations of the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version 2 dt. April 10, 2020)
Authors : Morris, Sebastian
Publication Date : 13-Apr-2020
Year : 2020
Publication Code : WP 2020-04-02
Abstract : We had earlier estimated the likely cases and deaths over the course of the pandemic for a number of countries. This was an early attempt and gave somewhat tentative results. With some 7 more days of data being now available, better estimates are possible which we bring out in this paper. As in the previous paper we use a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths, to estimate the zero growth level of cases and deaths. We also provide an upper bound to these estimates. The earlier estimates are further reinforced, and new estimates are made for a select set of countries where the growth rates in the numbers of cases, and in deaths have begun to decline. We also give estimates of the current growth rates in cases and deaths that these countries are likely to witness. The study as before presumes that the spread of infection is one-stage logistic process, once significant numbers of infections have taken place. This may not be true of countries which witnessed low deaths and cases. In countries that have witnessed much spread and deaths relative to their populations and with more sustainable approaches to containment may not witness significantly more deaths than what has happened thus far. This would be the case of Iran, Italy. China and Korea too with their rather highly coordinated approach despite low spread of cases and low number of deaths relative to their population would along with Iran, Italy and Denmark and Turkey would most likely not see a secondary wave of infections. Argentina and South Africa show very high growth rate in deaths even the increase in cases have slowed down considerable. Spain has stabilized its growth in deaths to nearly zero levels bit since the cases are continuing to grow at around 5.7% the death rates could again turn positive after a while. Germany and Indonesia show continuing rise in deaths and cases at moderately high rates. Japan, Malaysia, Brazil and Singapore show low to moderate death rates, but since the rise in cases continues to be between 5 and 8%, these low(Japan) moderate growth rate in deaths are likely to continue for a while before they fall to zero. France, Sweden Australia and Thailand would see continuing growth in cases at moderate rates even though the growth in deaths continue to be at high rates. The US most notably shows very high growth rates in both deaths and in cases indicating that the deaths at high rates are likely to continue for a while. While estimates are made for Canada, India, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, UK and the Philippines, they are of limited value since it is too early for the logistic model to fit. However, all of these except Russia show high death rates and high case rates. These countries could all see continuing rise in cases before the decline in rates happen, so that their current decline in death rates even when statistically significant could change for the worse. We have as in the previous paper used a logistic model to estimate the current growth rates, and made forecasts of the ultimate stable cases and deaths before these stop rising any further. For 26 countries (with a combined population of 3.8 billion) the total cases as on date 9th /10th April was where the logistic trend has been realized for cases, was 1.36 million. We expect the cases to rise to a maximum in the countries covered to 2.9 million. The death trends in only 22 of the 29 countries considered had stabilized to a logistic model. In these 22 countries (with a combined population of 3.7billion) the deaths as on date were 87,472. These would surely rise to between 121,000 to 355,000 before stabilizing. In the estimates above India most notably has not been included, since its trends have not yet stablised to a logistic unfoldment. At present it is engaged in a titanic struggle through near complete lock downs to restrict the cases and deaths to low levels. Whether this would work to quell the spread to very levels, or whether the problem explodes later is still an open question.
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Strategies for solving wicked problems of true uncertainty: Tackling pandemics like Covid-19 (Version: April 13, 2020)

Mathur, Ajeet N.
Title : Strategies for solving wicked problems of true uncertainty: Tackling pandemics like Covid-19 (Version: April 13, 2020)
Authors : Mathur, Ajeet N.
Publication Date : 13-Apr-2020
Year : 2020
Publication Code : WP 2020-04-03
Abstract : This paper has three objectives: first to locate Covid-19 as a ‘wicked problem\' characterized by ‘true uncertainty\' that challenges strategists and unrolls new research agenda; second, to examine the inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary dimensions of the endeavours to contain the pandemic that point to the need for new conversations beyond national boundaries; and thirdly to propose, based on interpretive pattern recognition methodologies, a five pronged approach for the immediate future after the lockdown. The study points to the need for further research on how epidemiological imperatives, disease burdens, economic adversities, civic community cohesions and political compulsions come together to resolve tensions between costs, efficiency and equity in formulating responses to emergencies.
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A Quick Estimate the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version April 1, 2020)

Morris, Sebastian
Title : A Quick Estimate the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version April 1, 2020)
Authors : Morris, Sebastian
Publication Date : 03-Apr-2020
Year : 2020
Publication Code : WP 2020-04-01
Abstract : Using a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths it would soon become possible to give estimates to the final numbers of cases and deaths that are likely on account of COID19, for countries which have gone through about 60+ days since the first cases were recorded. Such estimates assume that the containment and preventive actions continue unabated. We also provide an upper bound to the final cases and deaths that are likely. Right now (with data up to April 1) the projections for Korea, China, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, UK have been made. We hope to update the same in due course as the disease progresses. In the UK the deaths are bound to increase, and in Italy the cases could rise further.
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Incubation in India – A Multilevel Analysis

Sharma, Supriya; Vohra, Neharika
Title : Incubation in India – A Multilevel Analysis
Authors : Sharma, Supriya; Vohra, Neharika
Publication Date : 05-Mar-2020
Year : 2020
Publication Code : WP 2020-03-01
Abstract : This chapter undertakes a multi-level analysis of incubation in India with an objective to assess the landscape of incubation, the role and impact of incubators on startups, and understand challenges faced both by incubators and incubatees. Secondary data from 284 incubators across India and four largest incubator support schemes, survey of 22 incubation centres funded by a support scheme, and in-depth interviews of incubated entrepreneurs were collected and analysed. The purpose, objectives, processes and success metrics of incubators specific to Indian context are discussed. Contributions from this chapter will be useful to researchers, policy makers and incubation champions. The chapter may be of particular relevance to countries that are developing strong startup and incubation ecosystems.
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Development of Utility Function for Vehicle Insurance: Comparison of Logarithmic Goal Programming Method and Conjoint Analysis Method

Natesan, Sumeetha R.; Dutta, Goutam
Title : Development of Utility Function for Vehicle Insurance: Comparison of Logarithmic Goal Programming Method and Conjoint Analysis Method
Authors : Natesan, Sumeetha R.; Dutta, Goutam
Publication Date : 25-Feb-2020
Year : 2020
Publication Code : WP 2020-02-01
Abstract : The increase in competition among the vehicle insurance sectors has increased the number of policy options available in the market. This study focuses on the development of a utility function for these policies that will aid policy holders and potential investors in comparing them based on various attributes. A comparison of various vehicle insurance policies can help the customers to compare and choose a vehicle insurance that is suitable to them. Although there are several methods for developing a utility function, in this study, we intend to develop a linear utility model for vehicle insurance policies using two approaches: Logarithmic Goal Programming Model (LGPM) and Conjoint Analysis Method (CAM). We propose to compare the similarities and differences between the results obtained from LGPM and CAM approaches, used for developing the utility function for vehicle insurance policies. We also derive a choice probability of the vehicles insurance policies available in market by developing a multinomial logit choice model. We also study the consistency indicators of the respondents. We will provide useful insights for the use both approaches as research tools.
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A Mathematical Programming Approach with Revenue Management in Home Loan Pricing (Revised as on 20-12-2021)

Dutta, Goutam; Natesan, Sumeetha R.; Thakur, Deepika; Tiwari, Manoj K.
Title : A Mathematical Programming Approach with Revenue Management in Home Loan Pricing (Revised as on 20-12-2021)
Authors : Dutta, Goutam; Natesan, Sumeetha R.; Thakur, Deepika; Tiwari, Manoj K.
Publication Date : 25-Feb-2020
Year : 2020
Publication Code : WP 2020-02-02
Abstract : This paper enumerates the benefits of revenue management to the banks and the points to be considered while creating a revenue management and dynamic pricing model. Further it explains the differences in the application of these concepts to the financial sector as opposed to other sectors. We then delve into the method of giving home loans after identifying the major parameters that play a role in it. We formulate a dynamic pricing model for home loans for a bank. The model optimizes the net present value of money available subject to pricing limits, cash flows. It also considers the default probability as a function of interest rate. We then assume different versions of demand function. We consider when demand function is given by a straight line, an exponential function and by rectangular hyperbola. In all the three cases we have demonstrated that the dynamic pricing of home loans does yield better results than the currently used static pricing.
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Alternate Solution Approaches for Competitive Hub Location Problems

Tiwari, Richa; Jayaswal, Sachin; Sinha, Ankur
Title : Alternate Solution Approaches for Competitive Hub Location Problems
Authors : Tiwari, Richa; Jayaswal, Sachin; Sinha, Ankur
Publication Date : 10-Dec-2019
Year : 2019
Publication Code : WP 2019-12-01
Abstract : In this paper, we study the hub location problem of an entrant airline that tries to maximize its share in a market with already existing competing players. The problem is modelled as a nonlinear integer program, which is intractable for off-the-shelf commercial solvers, like CPLEX and Gurobi, etc. Hence, we propose four alternate approaches to solve the problem. The first among them uses the Kellys cutting plane method, the second is based on a mixed integer second order conic program reformulation, the third uses the Kellys cutting plane method within Lagrangian relaxation, while the fourth uses second order conic program within Lagrangian relaxation. The main contribution of this paper lies in the fourth approach, which along with refinements is the most efficient. Many of the problem instances that were not solvable using standard techniques, like the Kellys cutting plane method, have been solved in less than 2 hours of CPU time within 1% optimality gap.

Competitive Hub Location Problems: Model and Solution Approaches

Tiwari, Richa; Jayaswal, Sachin; Sinha, Ankur
Title : Competitive Hub Location Problems: Model and Solution Approaches
Authors : Tiwari, Richa; Jayaswal, Sachin; Sinha, Ankur
Publication Date : 10-Dec-2019
Year : 2019
Publication Code : WP 2019-12-02
Abstract : In this paper, we study the hub location problem of an entrant airline that tries to maximize its market share, in a market with already existing competing players. The routes open for use can be either of multiple allocation or single allocation type. The entrants problem is modelled as a non-linear integer program in both the situations, which is intractable for off-the-shelf commercial solvers, like CPLEX and Gurobi, etc. Hence, we propose four alternate approaches to solve the problem. The first is based on a mixed integer second order conic program reformulation, while the second uses lifted polymatroid cuts based approximation of second order cone constraints. The third is the second order conic program within Lagrangian relaxation, while the fourth uses approximated lifted polymatroid cuts within lagrangian relaxation. The four methods performs differently for the single allocation and multiple allocation models, and second approach is the best for single allocation model and for smaller instances in multiple allocation model. As the problem size in multiple allocation model increases, the third method starts to be the better performer in terms of computation time.